The hits keep on coming at what is a real high point of the flat season, with a big race nearly every weekend throughout July.
After last Saturday’s Irish Derby we turn focus back to the UK and Sandown’s summer showpiece the Coral-Eclipse. Last year’s renewal was billed as a showdown between So You Think and Workforce and those two great horses gave us a battle for the ages with the former eventually prevailing.
The defending champ is back again to defend his Eclipse crown in what is more than likely going to be his last race before taking up stallion duties down under.
Currently best-priced at even money, So You Think is certainly the fancied horse in the race and on ratings and all known form he would be the likely winner, however things are from simple in the world of horse racing and as we have seen with Black Caviar and Camelot over the past two weekends super short-priced favourites don’t always get the cake walk most expect.
So You Think is a polarizing horse, some call him over-rated whilst others point to his myriad of Group race victories and sterling efforts in defeat across the globe and claim that this a superstar of a race horse.
Whatever you think about So You Think it was difficult not to be impressed with his win in the Prince of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot when it finally looked like O’Briens Senior and Junior had figured out how to race the horse they inherited from down under amid a sea of hype and undoubted pressure.
You have to respect the horse but I’m more than tempted to take him on, as I did last year unsuccessfully, and whether you buy into the SYT hype or not even his most staunch defender would have to admit that there are several reasons why you wouldn’t be a complete idiot to have a crack at the even money favourite.
His Prince of Wales’s win goes someway to disproving this theory but since switching hemispheres his record in larger field races has been poor, in fact prior to his latest win the largest field he had recorded a win in was a field of six. Make of that what you will, some theorise that he is a small field bully and doesn’t get it all his own way when taking on more horses. If you were to play devil’s advocate though you could point out that the big fields in which he has tasted defeat in have been the Arc, Champion Stakes, Breeder’s Cup Classic and Dubai World Cup so finishing close up in any of those races is by no means a failure.
He’ll no doubt run well and be there or there abouts when the race gets serious but for me, in spite of being an undeniable high class performer, at that sort of price I’d want an as close to guaranteed victory as possible and there are certainly enough doubts about this race to look for some better value.
Aidan O’Brien doesn’t just rely on So You Think in Saturday’s Eclipse, although he is the undoubted first string, as he also has Windsor Palace, Robin Hood and Daddy Long Legs entered.
The first two named are in all likelihood going to be sacrificed as pacemakers if running and although Windsor Palace held off St. Nicholas Abbey for that infamous win earlier in the season the chances of either being anywhere near the placings in a race this competitive are slim to none.
Daddy Long Legs on the other hand is a horse with strong Dubai form coming in to this race (a common thread, but more on that later) having won the UAE Derby on World Cup night back in March. He’d previously won the Royal Lodge at the end of last season before a disastrous run at the Breeder’s Cup last November. His only subsequent start since that Meydan win was a respectable fourth in the Irish 2000 Guineas behind stablemate Power, the form of which now doesn’t read too bad at all when you consider Born To Sea was back in fifth after that horse got as close to Camelot as he did in Saturday’s Irish Derby.
Daddy Long Legs definitely needs to find a great deal of improvement to land a blow here but at 40/1 in places should out run his odds.
Away from Ballydoyle, another global power house with a strong hand in the race is Godolphin, who have Farhh, Monterosso and City Style entered.
Frankie Dettori takes the mount on Farhh who was a luckless, but eye-catching third behind So You Think and the Queen’s Carlton House in the Prince of Wales’s.
He was unbeaten going in to that race and making the impressive leap from handicaps to Group 1s having won the Thirsk Hunt Cup easily under top weight back in May. Farhh was the dark horse that day and gave a great accounting of himself, he is clearly highly thought of within the Godolphin operation and with a bit more luck on his side Saturday should be a major player.
I certainly had him down as one to back next time out regardless of the company he was racing in after his Royal Ascot performance, my only negative is how short his price has now become (best available is 4/1 at present) although that surely only signifies just how popular this horse is for the Eclipse, and if you watch that Ascot race back it’s impossible not to think that with a better break and more of a run up the rail in the home straight he’d have been a hell of a lot closer to So You Think than he ended up being.
It’s probably an insult to the horse that he wasn’t even the first Godolphin runner discussed in this piece given that he’s the reigning Dubai World Cup winner but that’s probably due to the fact that most people aren’t convinced by the form of Monterosso’s Meydan win.
The horse did well enough when on these shores, winning at Royal Ascot being the highlight, but given what we knew about him and knowing him to be a decent yardstick but hardly a world-beater his Dubai win shocked many.
Okay, he had been third in the race the previous year but the World Cup this year was a strange race and the Godolphin 1-2 were horses who’d been so unimpressive in their early career that they’d been shipped out to Mark Johnston.
Previous experience of the course, surface and climate, as you’d expect, seemed to give Monterosso and Capponi (2nd) the edge of their more well-known rivals that day.
The margin of his win was no doubt impressive but back on UK shores and on turf I’m not convinced the form will hold up and although 20/1 looks to be a huge price about a Dubai World Cup winner I’m prepared to overlook him, but also prepared to hold my hands up if we see Mickael Barzalona crossing the line in front offering his now trademark celebration.
City Style looks like being outclassed again here, he was sixth behind So You Think and Farhh last time out and third behind Cityscape in Dubai with a withdrawal in between after injuring himself just before the off. There is no reason to think that he will improve past his previous conquerors and looks like possibly being thrown to the wolves on Godolphin pace-making duties.
Also dual-handed are Juddmonte, who run Sir Henry Cecil’s admirable Twice Over, winner of this in 2010 and Roger Charlton’s Cityscape, who posted one of the performances of the season when running away with the Dubai Duty Free on World Cup night.
Twice Over has been a fantastic servant to Sir Henry and has won his fair share of big races including when upsetting Midday in his owner’s race at York last season but he looks to have his best days behind him now and his odds of 25/1 reflect that.
Cityscape however holds a great chance here after a run last time out that is probably best forgotten given that nothing seemed to go right for him that day.
He’d been a consistent sort prior to that career best in Dubai this year so I’d tend to think that it was just a natural progression rather than a freak win but we’ll certainly find out on Saturday. If he’s in the same sort of form as he was in Dubai then at 12/1 he has to have an outstanding each way chance.
In form duo John Gosden and William Buick also have an enviable hand as they team up with the hugely-talented Nathaniel, winner of last season’s King George.
Nathaniel was so impressive in the King George when outsider of five and is still lightly-raced for a four-year-old having only had seven races, including getting within half a length of Frankel on his debut.
1m2f is probably on the short side for him, as evidenced when fifth in last season’s Champion Stakes over the same distance, so whereas ordinarily he’d probably be my pick here I’m inclined to see how he performs over this trip first time out rather than steaming straight in to him, especially having been off the track for so long.
Nathaniel is the best backed horse in the race however, having come in today alone from an available 8/1 to as short as 9/2 in places as punters latch on to the purple patch Gosden and Buick are in right now.
2010 second Sri Putra also goes again and while he is consistent, he probably falls short of several of these and will do well to feature this time around.
The remaining four still in the race are interesting contenders and could surprise a few of the established guard however.
Giofra is a French raider who was second to Cirrus Des Aigles in April, which given that horses win in last season’s Champion Stakes over several of these gives you a rough idea on form lines.
Crackerjack King is also a fascinating contender having his first run for Marco Botti with Ryan Moore scheduled to ride indicating a degree of confidence. Winner of the Italian Derby, Crackerjack King is seven out of eight in his career to date, although soft ground would be problematic.
The two remaining horses still engaged at this stage are Bonfire and Cogito, two three year olds, both of which have been talking horses at points this season.
Bonfire of course won the Dante over this trip before disappointing when stepping up to 1m4f for the Derby. He didn’t fire that day for whatever reason; course, trip, atmosphere, and connections seem to think this is his optimum trip.
It will be a surprise if he’s good enough to take this at this stage of his career but confidence again must be high to let him take his chance against his elders.
The same goes for Cogito, who has been lightly raced and was fancied as a potential star this season by some, he disappointed last time out in the St. James’s Palace over a mile so it would seem that the step up in trip is aimed at bringing out further improvement in him.
Getting weight all round, the three year olds in the field can not be ruled out, it’s Bonfire that appeals most from that generation though, but even so they look up against it.
This year’s Eclipse looks far more competitive than last year’s renewal with several horses holding great chances, but I have to stick my neck out and so with ground conditions looking like suiting and that eye-catching run at Ascot still fresh in the memory I’m going to stick with Farhh and hope that he doesn’t blow his chance out of the gate this time and that Frankie can perform some Dettori magic to upset So You Think’s farewell party.
Recommendation:
Farhh @ 4/1 (Skybet, Boylesports, Betfred, Bet Victor, Ladbrokes, Hills)
Selected Best Odds:
So You Think 1/1
Farhh 4/1
Nathaniel 13/2
Cityscape 12/1
Bonfire 14/1
Crackerjack King 16/1
Monterosso 20/1
25/1 BAR
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