 |
| Nathaniel winning last year's King George with St. Nicholas Abbey back in third. |
The King George is undoubtedly one of the highlights of the flat calendar and is yet another huge Saturday race to look forward to in a month brimming with them.
Since it’s first running in 1951 we’ve see some fabulous renewals of Britain’s most prestigious open age flat race over the years, with the likes of Nijinsky, Mill Reef, Brigadier Gerard and Grundy all claiming victory in a golden age of middle distance flat horses in the 70s, while the 80s gave us Shergar and Dancing Brave.
Since the turn of the millennium there’ve been several fantastic performances posted in the race by modern greats. Montjeu’s 2000 win still leaves me with goosebumps when I watch it back and twelve months on his fellow super-sire Galileo took the 2001 running.
2010 is the year that perhaps lives on fondest in the memory as the brilliant Harbinger smashed a high-class field by a staggering 11 lengths breaking the track record in the process.
Last year’s renewal would by that standard have a lot to live up to and although it was a bitter-sweet afternoon with Goldolphin star Rewilding fatally breaking down on the run-in, then three-year-old Nathaniel sprang what to some was a shock by accounting for a select but top notch field.
2012 looks poised to be another fantastic instalment in the King George legacy and with Nathaniel looking likely to be back to defend his crown there’s no better place to start to look at this year’s potential runners than with the reigning Ascot king.
Nathaniel returned after a lengthy absence just two short weeks ago to put up a gutsy display to hold off Farhh in the Eclipse. Given that race was arguably too short for John Gosden’s charge it was one hell of a performance.
If the short time between races doesn’t have a negative effect and Nathaniel turns up in that sort of form at a track he loves, on ground he should relish then he’s going to be extremely difficult to beat as he bids to emulate Dahlia and Swain and become only the third horse to land back to back renewals of the race.
Incredibly for a four-year-old Nathaniel has still only raced eight times and his three trips to Ascot to date have yielded two wins, his 5l defeat of Fiorente at last year’s Royal meeting looking all the more impressive after that horse’s Newmarket win last week. Really though we need to look no further than his win in this race twelve months ago for evidence of why he can win on Saturday.
Nathaniel was sent off the 11/2 fourth choice of the punters that day but put his rivals to the sword 2 furlongs out and no one could quite live with him as he just kept on going beating Derby and Arc winner Workforce by 2 ¾ lengths.
Last year’s field although smaller arguably was stronger than the opposition he’ll face this year (although St. Nicholas Abbey is set to reoppose) so with only the gap between this and a hard-fought win in the Eclipse as a concern in my eyes it’s amazing to see Nathaniel isn’t even favourite for the race at present.
That honour currently goes to the aforementioned St. Nicholas Abbey, third in this a year ago. St. Nic has been an expensive horse to follow for his supporters, having burst on to the scene with an unbeaten two-year-old campaign, he was an expensive 2000 Guineas failure in 2010 when sent off evens favourite.
Perhaps he was unfairly hyped, Racing had just lost Sea The Stars and everyone was clamouring for the next big thing, but St. Nic didn’t deliver as expected and wasn’t seen again for almost twelve months. When he again flopped on his return at The Curragh, only managing third in a Listed race many wrote him off.
He soon bounced back to winning ways though taking the Ormonde at Chester and the Coronation Stakes at Epsom on Derby weekend. His third in this was followed by a third in France before Joseph O’Brien guided him to his finest hour to date by landing the Breeder’s Cup Turf round the twists and turns of Churchill Downs last November.
This year he’s again been a difficult horse to get a handle on, he was second in the Sheema Classic at Meydan at the end of March before losing out to pacemaker Windsor Palace in a Curragh Group 3 in May under an admittedly poor ride from Joseph O’Brien. St. Nic was last seen landing the Coronation in impressive fashion at Epsom on a course he seems to handle better than many.
On the pick of his form St. Nicholas Abbey has to be a contender, but whether he deserves to be favourite against a field this high class I’m not so sure. He’s had a more traditional break between races than Nathaniel, has solid form against many of these in the bag and is of course a son of 2000’s breathtaking winner Montjeu but there are still enough question marks against him that I’d be happy taking him on.
Whilst on St. Nicholas Abbey and Ballydoyle mention should probably be made to his two stable mates still entered in the race at this stage Robin Hood and Windsor Palace. Only one will probably run and will almost certainly be used as a pacemaker for St. Nic, unless a catastrophic error is once again made by the other jockeys in letting them get to far out in front it’s as good as inconceivable that one of these will be winning on Saturday.
Another horse to more than likely play second fiddle to a stable mate is Masked Marvel, winner of last year’s St. Leger for John Gosden. It’s pretty safe to say that Masked Marvel is the yard’s second string, as evidenced by William Buick bypassing him for Nathaniel, but they have found a more than capable deputy in Frankie Dettori. Although he’s a classic winner and Frankie knows Ascot like the back of his hand you’d have to say that he has it all to do on ground he won’t like and over a trip probably a little on the short side even round Ascot’s stiff track.
Second and third behind Masked Marvel in last year’s St. Leger also reoppose again on Saturday. Brown Panther has fairly or not never really been far from the headlines given that he’s co-owned by Michael Owen but after only one run as a two-year-old he enjoyed a fabulous three-year-old campaign really coming in to his own last summer. Three wins on the spin including the King George V at the Royal meeting saw his targets become much more lofty as the season progressed. A bold run in the German Derby followed and although the result shows he finished fifth he had to make most of his own running which really didn’t play in to his hands.
A Group race second convinced connections to take their chance in the Leger and although looking beaten a long way out he galloped on well to claim second.
He looked like he needed every yard of the run in is return in this season’s Ormonde where he looked fat as a pig before hand and really like he’d had enough of racing. However a drop down to listed company at Pontefract last time out saw him, admittedly against lesser opposition, back to his best. It’s a huge ask to go from that to the King George but there must be some confidence from connections to run him here, he’s won here before, he’ll be staying on at the end when perhaps some of the others are coming to the end of their rope and the ground shouldn’t be a problem.
All that considered his current odds probably underestimate his chance slightly and for me that makes him a cracking each way bet; he’ll need to put up a career best performance to win but at 33/1 even if he snatches a place you’d be showing a nice healthy profit.
Third in last year’s Leger Sea Moon seemingly has a far stronger chance of claiming victory on Saturday than the horse who arguably cost him victory in last year’s Leger however.
Sir Michael Stoute’s horse hasn’t really put a foot wrong in his short career – like Nathaniel he’s very lightly raced for a four-year-old – and he really came to the forefront of people’s thoughts when running away with the Great Voltigeur at York last August. He was sent off 2/1 favourite for the Leger and probably lost his chance when hampered a couple of times as things got serious.
His run in America behind St. Nicholas Abbey was again highly creditable and he’s two from two this season, making hard work of seeing off Dandino on his belated seasonal return before taking the Hardwicke at Royal Ascot in impressive style.
He ticks a lot of the same boxes as both Nathaniel and Brown Panther do in that they’ve won here, won’t mind the ground and stamina shouldn’t be a problem. He’s short enough for me if you do want to back him and Sir Michael hasn’t exactly been in the best form this season but that Hardwicke win is hard to get away from and Saturday could finally be the day he lands the big race everyone thought he had in him after his Voltigeur romp.
Second behind Sea Moon in the Hardwicke was Dunaden who although French-trained has done most of his Racing this season in the UK.
Winner of both the Melbourne Cup and Hong Kong Vase last year Dunaden has been an absolute credit to his connections and although you’d struggle to say he’s been as good this season he’s been running well enough in some big races.
When he was third at Newmarket at May he looked in need of the run and his defeat in France the time after that he was left with far too much to do, his Hardwicke run last time out was more the real Dunaden but Sea Moon had him well held and realistically he’s probably going to struggle to reverse those placings on Saturday. On the plus side he’s been reunited with Craig Williams who rode him to victory in Hong Kong and you’d be a fool to dismiss a Melbourne Cup winning horse.
Sticking with the French trained horses, two other raiders from across the channel also take their chance in the King George Reliable Man and Shareta. Reliable Man was the winner of last year’s Prix du Jockey Club before finishing down the field in the Arc; he was staying on when 4th in the Prince of Wales’s last time out and can’t be ruled out but may find one or two of these too good once again.
Shareta on the other hand was second in last year’s Arc to the surprise of many, none more so than her connections who surely were running her as Sarafina’s pacemaker. On that form you’d have to say she’s bang in contention but last year’s Arc was a funny race (as we’ll get to in a minute) and I’m not sure how strong that second really is. Take nothing away from her though she’s gone close in some good races since but there’s a feeling she’s probably just not good enough and may have each-way hopes at best.
Last year’s Arc winner Danedream will have her first race on UK soil at the weekend and if Shareta’s second was a surprise in last year’s Longchamp feature you could practically hear the shock as Danedream sprouted wings and left a top class field trailing in her wake.
Although she’s Timeform’s top-rated on the strength of that Arc race how reliable that form is remains questionable, she’s undoubtedly a good horse but if the Arc was re-run tomorrow I dare say we’d get a far different result. She was clearly underestimated that day and I could be in danger of doing so again, but I don’t think the jockeys will make the same mistake again and her form since the Arc has been in and out. Her last run in France was hugely disappointing when she could only trail home last of four, but that was a tactical affair and excuses can be made.
It’s perhaps unfair to say an Arc winner still has something to prove but if she can add the King George to the races she’s plundered round Europe it’ll be hard to deny Danedream is a filly of the highest order.
The final entrant is the hardest to assess, Japan’s Deep Brillante certainly ensures a real international flavour to Saturday’s race and it’s great to see the best horses from around the world mixing it together.
Deep Brillante is the only horse in the race from this year’s Classic generation somewhat disappointingly but he brings international classic form to the table. He’s only had six runs to date but has never been out of the places, he was third in the Japanese Guineas before winning the Japanese Derby by a nose when stepped up in trip.
Since then he’s been aimed at a European campaign and made the long journey across the globe with this race in mind as a starting point, he’ll once again be ridden by Yasunari Iwata.
It’s hard to know just how good this horse is but the weight he’ll be getting from the older horses shouldn’t be underestimated, after all a three-year-old getting weight all round took the race last year…
Best Odds:
St. Nicholas Abbey 11/4
Nathaniel 3/1
Sea Moon 3/1
Dunaden 6/1
Danedream 11/1
Deep Brillante 20/1
Reliable Man 20/1
Shareta 25/1
Brown Panther 33/1
Masked Marvel 33/1
Robin Hood 250/1
Windsor Palace 250/1
Recommendation(s):
A fantastic renewal is in prospect and it’s very difficult to assess with many international form lines coming in to play. I’m fascinated by the Japanese runner, but I personally think the winner will come from either Sea Moon or Nathaniel though with my preference for last year’s victor.
That Eclipse win really was fantastic all things considered and you’d have to think that this race will have been his actual target for twelve months now. I still don’t think we’ve all realised just how good this horse is, remember how close he got to Frankel once upon a time, and Saturday should be his day to show that he’s one of the best in the world.
If you’ve read any of these previews before you’ll know that I often let heart rule head and as such I can’t resist also having a little bit each way on Brown Panther at a big price. Yes this is far tougher than anything he’s faced to date but for the reasons outlined above I think at the prices he’s been underestimated somewhat and may spring a bit of a surprise staying on for a place.
Nathaniel win @ 3/1 (most bookies)
Brown Panther each-way @ 33/1 (Coral)
King George Memories:
No comments:
Post a Comment