Frankel Arc Run - Pros and Cons

Internationally Known - After his Juddmonte demolition job could Frankel go for the Arc?

On the back of his effortless victory in the Juddmonte International talk has swirled of a potential extra date on the Frankel retirement tour – a tilt at the Prix De L’Arc De Triomphe at Longchamp on 7th October.

In the wake of his destruction of the Juddmonte field Frankel wasn’t trending on twitter but the word Arc was, just showing how desperate people are to see the world’s greatest racehorse take on the cream of Europe, and the world’s middle distance horses.

If Frankel were to run – he’s currently put in for the race at ridiculously short prices – it would be a drastic departure from a very strategic plan that was laid out for his four-year-old campaign right from the start of the season.

Some would argue that would be a great move as it would show people that Frankel can win at any distance at any time but Sir Henry Cecil is a master of his craft and surely any deviation from what was obviously a well-thought out battle plan for 2012 would not be taken lightly.

I have compiled a list of 5 pros and 5 cons for and against a Frankel run in this year’s Arc, and strong arguments can be made on both sides...

Pros:

Silence Remaining Doubters – It may seem incredible, but even in the wake of that stunning Juddmonte performance people were still quick to find reasons to be negative about the Frankel phenomenon.

In certain quarters people suggest that until Frankel travels both out of his comfort zone and to take on the best the world has to offer in their back yard rather than the other way round he still won’t truly have shown he’s the best we’ve seen in decades.

I’m not one of them, as I don’t think he has anything left to prove now and owes us nothing, but a trip to France over a further distance again would surely silence any lingering doubters once and for all.

That said, look what happened with Black Caviar, she travelled half way round the world, beat the best sprinters Europe could muster when not 100% and all people could do afterwards was scoff at her performance.

Maybe we just need to accept that there’s no pleasing some people, an Arc win would go someway to achieving that though there’s no doubt about that.

Trip Shouldn’t Be A Problem – 1m4f would be a further step in to the unknown for Frankel, who prior to the Juddmonte had never gone beyond a mile before, but the way in which he won at York suggested 1m2f was easily within his wheel-house and the fact Tom Queally again struggled to pull him up would suggest that 1m4f would come just as easy to Frankel again; his breeding also points to middle distance ability as well.

Should Win – This year’s Arc doesn’t look a vintage renewal at present and if Frankel were to show up he should win easily.

At this point connections have more to lose than to gain with him as a defeat at any point, though not catastrophic would certainly damage his legend slightly. I don’t put as much stock in won and loss records as others do, you can still be a great horse and lose – just look at Secretariat – but I can see the value of an undefeated career in the breeding sheds.

Frankel already looks set to be one of the most expensive, if not the most expensive, stallion in history so with every run connections are risking a multi-million pound entity, but his chances of defeat in the Arc, though not impossible, do look unlikely.

Strengthen His Legend – The previous point leads nicely on to this one in that an Arc win would only add to the already rampant legend of Frankel.

A win at 1m4f would make him an even more popular commodity at stud than he surely already will be, if that’s possible, and would add his name to a list of Arc winners that includes some of the finest horses to ever grace the track.

He’s going to go down as the greatest of all time anyway but an Arc win would mean it would take something out of this world to ever displace him from that position.

Another Chance For People To Enjoy Him Before Retirement – The reason people have a greater affinity with champion jumps horses than flat horses is purely down to familiarity in that they get to enjoy them longer.

We’re going to lose Frankel from the track at the end of this season, that is for sure and as things stand we’re only going to see him run once more. An Arc run would at least ensure an additional date for people to enjoy and appreciate this incredible specimen before he’s sent off to stud.

Connections owe us nothing, make no mistake, I’m incredibly grateful they kept him in training at four, as they could easily have retired him after his three-year-old campaign as connections of Sea The Stars did, but one more run especially on a stage as grand as the Arc would be fitting for a horse as majestic as Frankel.

Cons:

Rough French Races – Given how mercurial Frankel is do we really want to see him getting knocked about in a notoriously rough race on likely softer than ideal ground?

The decision by the French racing authorities to allow more and more horses to contest their feature race of the season has been baffling, even with the presence of Frankel I would expect a full field for the Arc and I for one have no desire to see our best horse falling foul of the rough and tumble that most top French races seem to bring these days.

The Arc surely isn’t a race that would allow Frankel to flourish to the best of his considerable abilities and with so little time left with this horse we all just want to see him at his imperious best.

Further Step In To The Unknown – It certainly looks as though 1m4f would be within Frankel’s reach but it would be another bold move into uncharted waters for him having never competitively gone further than his Juddmonte-winning distance of 1m2f.

Anything attempted for the first time brings an inherent risk with it and although Frankel should stay 1m4f there is no guarantee that he will.

More To Lose Than To Gain – With every run now, realistically there is more to lose than to gain for Frankel but that would be even truer of a trip to France.

He’s never travelled further than Yorkshire, he’s never run further than 1m2f and without pretending to know his health, I don’t think the gentleman that is Sir Henry Cecil would be up for a trip to France at the moment so Frankel may be there without the genius who has nurtured him to the beast he is today.

Obviously the cache of an Arc win would be huge for Frankel both in terms of cementing his legacy and his stud fee but defeat for this horse has become unthinkable and were he to be beaten before retirement it would be a shock that his reputation may never shake, and for my money if he were to ever meet with defeat the perfect storm of factors that could lead to such an eventuality would occur at the Arc.

There Are Bigger Stages – It’s not going to happen, mainly for several of the reasons already discussed above but I want, and always have wanted, Frankel at the Breeder’s Cup.

The Arc is a great spectacle, but it’s got nothing on the Breeder’s Cup so for me, if you’re going to go off script then do it in the most spectacular way possible and we all know the Americans know how to put on a spectacle.

With the Bobby Frankel factor the atmosphere at Santa Anita would be electric and the Breeder’s Cup Classic over 1m2f seems a better fit to me than the 1m4f Arc. There is of course the issue of surface in the US but the way Frankel glides over the ground I don’t see any reason he wouldn’t handle the dirt track in California.

A trip Stateside would also allow people from much further out reaches of the globe than just across the channel to appreciate Frankel in the flesh and the reception the Americans would give him would be out of this world.

Calendar – The Arc takes place this year a mere thirteen days before Champion’s Day at Ascot and one thing above all else is certain – we need Frankel at Champion’s Day.

The thirteen day break between races would be the shortest recovery time Frankel has had in his career to date (only by a day though) and would come between arguably his two toughest tasks, would that be enough to see him at his peak for both or would it mean one was sacrificed?

Racing can’t afford not to have Frankel at Champion’s Day so if it’s that or the Arc it’s a no brainer in my opinion on which one he goes for.

I’ve played devil’s advocate a little, but a case can be made for both schools of thought – what are your opinions on Frankel possibly going for this year’s Arc?