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| Dull To Bring The Pain - US raider Dullahan is fancied for the Dubai World Cup |
Last year the first two home were horses originally not deemed good enough for the royal blue of Godolphin and both Capponi and Monterosso had spent much of their early careers with Mark Johnston.
Both those two are back again twelve months on, and like last year are pretty much unconsidered for the 2013 running, which could again prove costly to punters.
As always for what is essentially their own race Godolphin have a very strong hand, with the aforementioned two, favourite Hunters Light and African Story they are responsible for almost a third of the field.
America had a great record in this race in the old Nad Al Sheba days when the race was run on the dirt surfaces the American horses are so used to, but they have struggled since the switch to Meydan and the tapeta surface in 2010.
This year they have arguably their strongest hand in a long time though with former Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom, dual Breeders’ Cup heroine Royal Delta and the very talented Dullahan forming a three-pronged attack.
Also in there you have some domestic interest with Marco Botti’s Planteur, Ed Dunlop’s much-travelled Red Cadeaux and the Andrew Balding trained Side Glance, a horse that ran with credit behind Frankel a couple of times.
Rounding out the line-up are Irish Derby winning former Aidan O’Brien inmate Treasure Beach, now with Mike De Kock, Meandre for France and Kassiano for the locals.
As we’ve seen so many times before at Meydan, the draw can make or break your chance before you even get on to the race course. My hope for last year’s race Game On Dude had no chance from the car park draw and in spite of getting over, the amount of energy used early to try and get a good spot almost certainly put an end to his chance as he faded tamely when things got serious.
This year the draw has been unkind to Kassiano (13), Animal Kingdom (12) and African Story (11), so for the purposes of this piece those will be the first three ruled out. I would love to see Animal Kingdom go well in this ahead of a trip to Royal Ascot this summer, and though the draw is not a complete killer, it’s going to very hard work from the outside for these three.
African Story as well as getting a poor draw also may be stretched by the trip having been more of a miler to date (won the Godolphin mile on this card last year).
Kassiano would have been considered a big threat given the fantastic carnival he’s been enjoying to date but that draw is a big negative and though he clearly thrives under the conditions it’ll be a hell of a performance if he can get up in front under William Buick.
I may be left to eat my words, and I know they were first and second last year, but I just don’t think Monterosso and Capponi are good enough. Both have also enjoyed far less ideal preparations than last year reportedly with neither having had a race course start since last year, the latter since this race twelve months ago in fact.
It wouldn’t be the biggest shock in the world were one or both of them to go well again given what happened last year but it would still be a surprise this time around.
The domestic brigade, I’m sorry to say, also don’t look good enough. Planteur is the shortest of the three in the betting and though he was third in this last year and was building towards this, the fact he had to make such hard work of a bunch of no-hopers at Lingfield last month is a concern in my book, even if he did break the track record that day.
Side Glance is consistent enough but this looks a very tough assignment and he’ll do well to crack the places, even having had a decent enough prep run in the Jebal Hatta earlier this month when fourth.
Red Cadeaux though a fantastic horse that has traversed the globe and done connections proud will surely find this firstly too hard and secondly too stiff of a trip as he’s better over considerably further than this.
Treasure Beach is tough to assess now with Mike De Kock, after a great classic season which saw him take the Irish Derby and finish second in the Epsom race behind Pour Moi, his four-year-old campaign was a bit of a disappointment.
He was fourth in the Sheema Classic here to kick off the season which wasn’t a bad run at all but was then disappointing on three subsequent American runs. He’s drawn low, is high class on his day and has experience of the track and is trained by a master so it’d be no surprise at all to see him outrun his current odds of 25/1 but the suspicion is he’ll probably just come up short against a couple of these, I couldn’t put you off him as an each-way bet though if he turns up with his A-game.
Meandre is probably going to struggle here, he’s a really good horse on his day – he won the Grand Prix De Paris in 2011 – but he was way down the field in the Arc at the end of last season before bouncing back to somewhere near his best in finishing a narrow third behind Red Cadeaux in the Hong Kong Vase at Sha Tin.
He’s drawn towards the outside but not from a perceived insurmountable position and again he’s one it wouldn’t be the biggest shock in the world to see go well but he looks vulnerable to the unique conditions of Meydan.
That leaves us with three, the top two in the betting and the horse I think represents the best value in the race.
The favourite Hunters Light is drawn favourably and has been flying at the carnival this year. Meydan seems to bring out the best him and he’s understandably well fancied, but he’s a short price now and isn’t for me as a result.
One of the reasons for that is how average a horse he was here last summer. I know that UK form counts for about zero in Dubai, as we saw last year with the winner and the runner-up, but I just can’t bring myself to back a horse at 7/2 for the world’s richest race that was a dismal sixth of seven in the Group 3 Huxley Stakes at Chester less than a year ago.
It’s that mentality that saw me lose in this race last year and it’s why I’ll lose again this year if Hunters Light bolts up like he could very well do.
Royal Delta is a horse that I really love, she’s done me proud at two consecutive Breeders’ Cups now and Mike Smith gave her one of the rides of last year to land her second Ladies Classic in November.
She’s been fantastically consistent at the top level and crucially has had an - albeit luckless - taste of this race having run ninth in this last year. If the Ladies Classic is anything to go by Smith could try and make all, and if she gets a soft lead – unlikely though given all the Godolphin runners – she could be very hard to pin back and if it weren’t for the prices, having backed her for this last year along with Game On Dude she’d probably be my pick.
At the prices though the horse I think represents the value in the race is the other American raider Dullahan.
He’s a horse that handles a synthetic surface – he has three Grade 1 wins on synthetic tracks – including a victory over Game On Dude in that one’s backyard in the Pacific Classic last season.
Trained by Dale Romans who knows how to win this race having done so in 2005 and ridden by the recently out of retirement Gary Stevens who has also tasted success in this race in 1998 aboard Silver Charm, Dullahan is probably the most unconsidered of the three American runners but to me looks the most likely winner, and on top of that is the best price.
Stevens has reportedly cited this ride as one of the reasons for coming out of retirement at the tender age of 50 and he’ll hopefully give Dullahan the sort of intelligent ride he’s renowned for.
On paper Dullahan’s form doesn’t look up to much but there are legitimate excuses for almost all of his poor runs to date, yes it’s a risk on that basis but 12/1 is still a fair each-way price and at still only four there’s a good chance he’s not done improving. Romans’ horses are flying, he’s been drawn handily and has had the benefit of a warm-up round here on Super Saturday.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see at least two of the American runners hit the frame this year that’s how strong a team they field, but at the prices it’s Dullahan who’d be the pick for me at a price that can still reward you each-way should he just come up short.
Elsewhere on an afternoon’s racing that really is mouth-watering, Japanese raider Gentildonna looks the one to beat in the race prior to the World Cup the Sheema Classic.
South African sprinter Shea Shea although a short price now, looks to arguably be the banker of the afternoon for Mike De Kock in the Al Quoz Sprint and I fancy Aidan O’Brien to repeat last year’s achievement of saddling the UAE Derby winner, this time around with Lines Of Battle whose sixth in last season’s Coventry represents really strong form and is a surprisingly big price.
Dubai World Cup – Selected Best Odds:
Hunters Light 7/2
Royal Delta 5/1
Animal Kingdom 11/2
African Story 9/1
Dullahan 12/1
Planteur 14/1
Kassiano 16/1
Monterosso 16/1
Capponi 18/1
Meandre 20/1
Red Cadeaux 25/1
Treasure Beach 25/1
Side Glance 33/1
Recommendation:
Back Dullahan each-way @ 12/1 (Bet365, Stan James, William Hill)
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