Kentucky Derby 2013 Preview

Optical Illusion - Orb can flash past his rivals in Saturday's Kentucky Derby

The 139th running of “the greatest two minutes in sport” has lost a bit of its interest for me this year as the two horses I picked out a while back for the race now won’t run due to injury.

So with both Shanghai Bobby and Violence “off the Derby trail” as they like to say in the US, it’s been back to the drawing board in recent weeks for me.

I would love to see Aidan O’Brien’s Lines Of Battle win but he looks to face a stiff task if he is to do so, but he won well in the UAE Derby at Meydan on World Cup night, although the form of that race is yet to really be tested, and with Ryan Moore missing Saturday’s racing at Newmarket to take the ride you’d have to give him a chance, if only an outside one.

My idea of the winner though is a horse called Orb; a horse that has coincidentally beaten my original two picks in two of his prep races. He narrowly accounted for Violence in the Fountain of Youth and then won the Florida Derby impressively with champion 2yo Shanghai Bobby well beaten down the field.

I like the Florida Derby as a prep for Kentucky and Orb has reportedly been working extremely well at Churchill in his track work this week. He also received what you could call a favourable draw, being drawn wide in gate 16, a position that should suit his running style having covered more ground than almost everything else in his last two races coming home fast and late.

Orb will face strong competition in this year’s Derby from Todd Pletcher’s Verrazano, winner of the Wood Memorial. Pletcher has an enviable hand in this year’s race saddling no less than five of the twenty-one strong field but it is the unbeaten Verrazano that looks his best chance of winning one of the world’s most famous races.

Verrazano (drawn 14) will have to overcome a worrying stat if he is to land the Derby though as no horse has won the race without racing as a two-year-old since 1882; with the brilliant Johnny Velasquez in the saddle though he could be primed to buck that particular trend.

With Joel Rosario able to sit outside on Orb though and keep tabs on Verrazano and Johnny V through the race, it could set up nicely for the fast improving colt from Shug McGaughey’s barn.

Of the rest Goldencents could benefit if there is a muddling pace – which with the lack of confirmed front-runners it could be, Itsmyluckyday is a talented colt that it would be no surprise to see win, while Frac Daddy is one at a big price that I wouldn’t completely write off in spite of his wide draw.

The Kentucky Derby has been known to throw up a big priced winner or two in recent years but this year Orb looks to hold a great chance of landing the race for favourite-backers and writing his name in to the history books.

Recommendation:

Orb 1pt win @ 9/2 (Boylesports, Paddy Power)