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| Battle of the Bolge - Can Jim Bolger & Dawn Approach repel the Coolmore ranks in the Derby? |
With fifteen horses still in the reckoning to tackle the downs’ demanding camber and undulations as of this morning, the time seemed right to run the rule over the contenders, not all of whom are guaranteed to run as things stand.
So here in ascending order based on current price (starting with the favourite) is my runner-by-runner guide to this year’s Epsom Derby:
Dawn Approach – Unbeaten 2000 Guineas winner and heavy favourite. Has won seven from seven including three Group 1s and Group 2 Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot. Unraced beyond 1m but sire won the Derby and looks like he should stay and handle unique demands of Epsom. Champion European two-year-old in 2012 and seems to improve with every run, dominant in 2000 Guineas and trained by a genius – the one to beat.
Battle Of Marengo – One of several runners from powerful Ballydoyle operation, unbeaten in five since debut defeat and twice a winner at Group 2 level. Latest win at Leopardstown when long odds-on favourite hardly sparkling but got the job done and appears to be yard’s first string. Has won over 1m2f, looks a stayer and will have the benefit of pacemakers to ensure stamina comes in to play.
Magician – Impressive Irish 2000 Guineas winner just this past weekend and interesting contender. Only managed one win at two but returned this season with impressive win in Group 3 Dee Stakes at Chester over 1m2f before dropping back to 1m to land first Irish classic of the season. Lack of a break between races a worry but didn’t exactly have a hard race in the Irish 2000 and looks a player.
Ocovango – Unbeaten French raider trained by Andre Fabre who sent Pour Moi over to win in 2011. Three from three including winning Group 2 Prix Greffulhe (same race won by Pour Moi en route to Derby win) at beginning of May making all and scoring comfortably. Had useful taste of Epsom at Breakfast with the Stars last week and worked well, stamina a slight concern but if he stays he looks dangerous coming from a master trainer who knows how to win this race.
Chopin – Supplemented German raider compounding international feel of this year’s race. Recently bought by powerful Qatar Racing on the back of a very impressive 8l romp at Krefeld on his seasonal reappearance last month. Another unraced beyond a mile but could be the dark horse of the race, will be ridden for first time by new owners’ retained jockey which could be a negative however.
Ruler Of The World – Hugely impressive Group 3 Chester Vase winner on only his second start earlier this month but could be saddled with pacemaking duties here depending on what else runs from yard. Remains unbeaten however and latest going away victory over 1m2f would suggest stamina no problem, but last horse to win the Derby after using Chester Vase as a trial was Shergar in 1981 and others in own yard look to be preferred.
Mars – Highly touted Ballydoyle inmate raced only once as a two-year-old when impressive maiden winner at Dundalk. Returned with a staying on sixth in the 2000 Guineas over an inadequate mile and should be better suited to longer trip. Difficult to assess really but always been prominent in the betting for this and could outrun his odds at a bigger price.
Libertarian – Looks best of the domestic hopes on the back of his Dante win at York earlier this month. Ran out a surprise winner that day but won it well in the end even though it looked a weak renewal of one of the more prominent trials for this race. Like Dawn Approach is by New Approach who won a Derby, so well bred but this much tougher than anything he’s faced and will need to find further improvement.
Festive Cheer – Another for Aidan O’Brien and Ballydoyle that would almost certainly be given front-running duties if lining up. Well beaten on debut before shedding maiden tag at Dundalk last August, narrow third in a Group 2 contest at Longchamp on seasonal reappearance and by super-sire Montjeu. Not totally written off as we’ve seen perceived Coolmore sacrificial lambs hang on for a place in the past but hard to fancy.
Trading Leather – Stable mate of Dawn Approach and a typically tough Jim Bolger horse. Was second in the Dante behind Libertarian and third in the Irish 2000 Guineas last weekend behind Magician. Has form with many of the best three-year-olds out there, including second to Battle Of Marengo on his debut and a winner himself at Group 3 level. Yard’s second string though and not even a confirmed runner at this point.
Galileo Rock – Outsider that finished 8l ahead of Libertarian in the Group 3 Classic Trial at Sandown last month. Only raced three times and won only once when winning maiden at Leopardstown in impressive fashion. Achievements on track to date would suggest major improvement needed here to get competitive but considerably better price than the horse he finished well in front of last time out.
Mirsaale – The only horse in the race to boast winning course form having landed a conditions race at Epsom last month. That at least ticks one box as handling the course is a large part of the Derby battle but on all known form shouldn’t be good enough to get competitive here. Yet to be tried at Group level and well beaten several times last season in races he really should have been winning if he’s a legitimate Derby contender, three-year-old return more encouraging however but would be big surprise were he to figure in the shake-up.
First Cornerstone – Landed Curragh Group 2 in August from Flying The Flag and fourth in Racing Post Trophy to finish two-year-old campaign the form of which looks pretty good now. Was fifth placed in last weekend’s Irish 2000 Guineas and although he could be one for a place at a price if running, as with the other contenders that ran in the first Irish classic the closeness of that race would be a worry and he looks unlikely to reverse placings with Magician upped in trip.
Flying The Flag – Another potential trailblazer from the Coolmore battalion, tried at the highest level but as yet not able to land a blow in top company. Won on debut and then second in a Group 2 behind First Cornerstone. Finished 2012 when last of seven behind Dawn Approach in the National Stakes. Returned this season with a ninth-placed effort in the French 2000 Guineas before finishing a well-beaten sixth in the Irish equivalent this past weekend and not a guaranteed runner given proximity of that race.
Ocean Applause – Yet to win a race and priced accordingly as the rank outsider of the lot. Well beaten on pretty much every start to date and finished distant last on previous two starts including when seemingly not handling demands of the course when tailed off behind Mirsaale at Epsom last month. Simply not good enough and would be one of greatest shocks of all time were he to get involved.
The Derby 2013 – Selected Best Odds:
Dawn Approach Evens
Battle Of Marengo 11/2
Magician 13/2
Ocovango 8/1
Chopin 10/1
Ruler Of The World 12/1
Mars 16/1
Libertarian 16/1
Festive Cheer 50/1
Trading Leather 66/1
Galileo Rock 66/1
Mirsaale 100/1
First Cornerstone 100/1
Flying The Flag 150/1
Ocean Applause 500/1
Already Advised:
Dawn Approach 1pt Win @ 12/1
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