Talking Horses

Monday 6 May 2013

Prix De L'Arc De Triomphe 2013 - Dawn Approach - Ante-post

Quick as a Flash - The copper flash can land the Arc as well as the Derby
I’m beginning to sound like a broken record here but on the back of his explosive 2000 Guineas win at the weekend and the confirmation today that he will indeed head to the Epsom Derby over 1m4f the time seems right to back Dawn Approach at what looks a big price in another market.

We’re already sitting pretty with a 12/1 slip for him in the Derby (now best priced 7/4) and if he goes on to Epsom in just under four weeks and wins then his price for what will surely then be his end of season target – the Arc – will contract massively.

A Coventry winner we know he’ll handle the large Arc field and he’s now proven he’ll go on any sort of ground, so whatever the unpredictable early October weather throws up I’d be confident he’ll handle it.

His trainer Jim Bolger is nothing short of a genius and if he elects to send this horse to Longchamp then you’d have to think that it was for good reason.

With majority owners Godolphin on somewhat of a recovery mission now an Arc win would undoubtedly be a way to finish what has already been an unsavoury season on a high.

I can’t do justice to just how highly I think of this horse and I really do believe that he’s the superstar we all thought we wouldn’t see again for years in the wake of Frankel’s retirement.

Dawn Approach remains unbeaten and though his Arc participation at this point remains in question but that is why we can get a juicy price as it stands for the Arc and if he wins the Derby it has to be on the radar.

It’s way too early to know exactly what the landscape of the race will look like come October but I am fearful of the Japanese challenge to the copper flash.

Ante-post favourite Orfevre can go one better this year there’s no doubt about that and compatriot Gentildonna can continue the fantastic record fillies have had in this race in recent times – the amount of ground she covered in Dubai as opposed to winner St. Nicholas Abbey was good for a few more lengths and under a better ride I think she’d have won and would be trading shorter than she is.

My confidence in Dawn Approach is sky high at the moment though and given what he’s already done for me and this blog and the position we’re now in with him for the Derby, a speculative punt that he goes to Longchamp seems more than fair.

Recommendation:

1pt win Dawn Approach @ 8/1 (Stan James)

1 comment:

  1. Dawn Approach has a great chance in the Arc. Three year olds have a fantastic record in the race. It seems a three horse race at this stage. I would not write off Gentildonna, but she will have more weight than Dawn Approach. If e wins the Derby and starts in the Arc, I am guessing he will be 5/2, especially if Orfevre doesn't make it.

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