King George VI Chase 2014 Ante Post Preview

Fill Your Boots - Ma Filleule is the value call in the King George

One of the tropes of the festive season is that after weeks of build-up and anticipation the big moment comes and goes in a matter of minutes, and much like that dawn start on Christmas morning for an excitable child the King George will be over in a flash on a Boxing Day but it will hopefully leave us with that warm wintery glow if we can find the winner.

The world of ante-post betting is rapidly becoming a thing of the past sadly, with most firms pushing favoured horses out to prices greater than they’ve been in the build-up to the race come race day morning.

Current market leaders, and the most likely winners, Silviniaco Conti and Champagne Fever will both almost certainly be available at a similar price or bigger come the day of the race so for the purposes of this preview will be passed over.

The Willie Mullins grey is actually the horse I think will take all the beating in this year’s renewal of the Boxing Day spectacular, but unless you managed to grab some of the fancy prices available about him before his seasonal reappearance or in the immediate aftermath of that victory he’s now surely short enough in the betting at a general 7/2.

If the ground was to come up very testing then the 11/4 on last year’s winner Silviniaco Conti could look a late Christmas gift, however given the forecast that seems unlikely at this stage and Conti now looks like an out and out stayer.

It’s never not a stamina test in the King George but on your usual jumps ground round a speed track like Kempton the suspicion is that he might not quite have the gears of a Champagne Fever.

That said, the last two renewals have both come on very searching terrain and if this year’s renewal also got gruelling then the reigning champ is the one they all have to beat.

We’re looking for some ante-post value here though and one horse that will certainly not be a bigger price on the day should she line-up is Nicky Henderson’s Ma Filleule.

Currently available at a best price of 33/1, the grey mare will likely be less than half that price if she is declared next week and she could be even shorter still if Henderson’s Simonsig doesn’t make the race and she carries the yard’s main hopes.

Simonsig’s participation has grown increasingly less likely over the past few weeks but in Ma Filleule Seven Barrows have a ready made grey replacement.

Mares allowance aside, there’s a lot to like about last year’s Topham winner even though she’s somewhat disappointed on both starts to date this term.

The King George could prove she’s just simply not as good as last season’s spring excursions seemed to suggest, but for now I’m prepared to keep faith that she needed the run on her Down Royal reappearance and that the farce her last race turned in to simply conspired against her.

That Aintree loss was tough to take having backed her for that race and then seeing it all unfold in person.

She travelled strongly though, jumped impeccably and after Holywell’s departure looked the most likely winner; she’d been taking lengths out of them over the fences the whole way round and although she made a blunder at what became the second last I firmly believe that if they’d jumped all the fences she would have emerged victorious.

It pretty much turned in to a Bumper in the end and the best Bumper horse ran out the winner. True Ma Filleule eventually relinquished second close to home and looked slightly alarmingly like a non-stayer in doing so, but the race had not been run to suit her strengths and Aintree is a lot different than Kempton especially over another furlong.

Ma Filleule’s pinpoint jumping and speed should be ideally suited to Kempton and if allowed to take her chance – which frustratingly still does not seem guaranteed at this point – I can see her running a big race and making a mockery of her current price.

There are still several horses priced up that look unlikely to run which will too only contribute to a contraction in price so before we get our first look at the likely field at the weekend now is the time to be backing her.

Yes the risk factor associated with ante-post betting is still there at present but that’s factored in to the price.

This year’s King George could see a bumper entry of greys and it’s the one that’ll be lurking down the bottom of the card that makes most appeal at the current prices.

Recommendation:

Ma Filleule 0.5pt e/w @ 33/1 (Stan James, Sky Bet)