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| Got My Vaut - If last year's Supreme winner takes his chance he'll be tough to beat in the JLT |
Rather surprisingly given how fearful the bookies usually are of the Willie Mullins battalions from a long range perspective, the horse I’m interested in here has actually lost his position at the head of the market with some firms in recent weeks.
The reason for this is two-fold, one, because as is always the case this time of year, the uncertainty over where Mullins will aim his most deadly weapons still reigns supreme and his big guns could be rerouted at any time between now and the tapes rising the second week in March, and the second is the crushing bump he took on Boxing Day in the Racing Post Novice Chase which resulted in a remarkable defeat to Clarcam.
I am of course talking about last year’s Supreme winner Vautour.
The runaway winner of last year’s festival opener was originally fncied by many as this year’s leading Arkle contender, but with the rapid Un De Sceaux also within his ranks Willie Mullins – in spite of the different ownership – will surely want to keep two of his most exciting prospects apart.
Un De Sceaux appeared to have put his chase debut stumble behind him when an easy winner as expected over the minimum trip last time out at Fairyhouse and currently looks a very worthy Arkle favourite to me which should leave Vautour to tackle the intermediate distance of the JLT, and with an entry over 2m3f at Leopardstown in the Killiney Novice Chase at the weekend this now looks like it could very well indeed be the plan.
If that is in fact the case then Vautour will surely be half the price he is now, barring another slip up on his next start that is, because he had already handed Clarcam a serious beating on his first chase start while running to a rating that put him up there with alongside some of the best of all time’s chase debuts, so the wide margin of defeat last time out really isn’t representative of his true ability at all.
In fact watching that race back it’s incredible he managed to finish in the places at all as he all but knocked himself out on landing.
If he’s none the worse for that blunder and puts in a good round then he should win comfortably on his prep run and that would see his price fall and then fall further once his target is officially confirmed and I really do think it will be here.
That risk of course is the reason he’s currently not even favourite in some places for this race, and if they do elect to miss the festival with Un De Sceaux again then Vautour will surely then go for the more prestigious Arkle.
Un De Sceaux won’t go further than 2m though so if he goes to Cheltenham it will be for the Arkle and Mullins has no aversion to running his best horses here anyway having won it with Sir Des Champs in 2012 and it’s recently improved Grade 1 status will surely only aid the decision to send a good one out again.
Again there will be no 9/2 around if he goes for this race and he’ll undoubtedly go off favourite so now seems the time to get on.
Paul Nicholls’s Ptit Zig, impressive on all his starts this season and unbeaten over fences, currently heads the betting with the majority of firms and with seemingly no question marks over his target is probably deserving of that spot.
He has a course and distance win to his name in the Dipper on New Year’s Day, something Vautour does not, and looks the leading challenger from the home brigade, whether he has Vautour’s ability though is another thing as I genuinely believe he could be something very special indeed.
Of the remaining big names towards the fore of the market Mullins also has Valseur Lido, but again if Vautour goes here then he more than likely does not and the RSA has been touted so he is passed over.
Apache Stronghold adds another good string to the bow of the Irish challenge as does Gilgamboa, the horse that could be the each way value alternative to the short priced market leaders if lining up here, but again it’s somewhat of a guessing game.
Splash Of Ginge won well on New Year’s Day in a competitive handicap and the time stacks up favourably with Ptit Zig’s race on the same card but he will unquestionably need to step up again to land this, while Paul Nicholls’ Saphir Du Rheu will need to leave behind the jumping errors he’s made on two of his three starts to date in order to get competitive and missing Cheltenham with him entirely has been discussed.
Beyond that the remainder of the current market looks filled with horses that either won’t run here due to hailing from the same yard as other leading hopes or will simply just run elsewhere.
When the inevitable cutting up of this race does occur 9/2 about last year’s Supreme winner could look like an absolute steal… if he runs of course!
Recommendation:
Vautour 1pt win @ 9/2 (Sky Bet, Stan James, Betfair Sportsbook)
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