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| Cappa-tion Competition - It's deja vu with Cappa Bleu is my Grand National horse |
The now traditional runner-by-runner guide will be up online once the final field is confirmed but for now with prices changing on a near hourly basis I wanted to crystallise my thoughts and provide an idea of which horses I think will go well in this year’s race.
It’s a really strong looking renewal of the world’s most famous horse race and as always several look to hold live chances. Obviously luck is a massive factor in running but strictly on form and the attributes needed to go well there are many that in my opinion can be overlooked.
On His Own has been well supported and this has clearly been his target for some time, but he just doesn’t do it for me and I can’t help but feel that were he trained by a less ‘sexy’ trainer that he’d be at least twice the price you can currently get him at, which seems very short based on what he’s achieved to date.
Yes, he was going very well when coming down last year though and Willie Mullins always tends to do well with horses he sends over for the Grand National, but given how short he is now – although he is definitely one I fear – On His Own is just not for me.
I can’t help but feel that Seabass had his big chance to win this last year, and with the added weight this time around, although he’s sure to go well again there look to be others better handicapped.
One of those is in fact from Seabass’s own yard and I do prefer the chance of his stable mate Colbert Station this year. He’s a horse I’ve had on my mind for this since his Paddy Power Chase win earlier in the season, Ted Walsh knows what it takes to get them ready for this and as with his 2000 winner Papillon given Colbert Station’s connections I expect a gamble to take place on this one before the off, especially if Tony McCoy opts for him over Sunnyhillboy. The market hasn’t missed his chance though and he now looks plenty short enough.
Speaking of last year’s second, Sunnyhillboy looks to have an uphill struggle at the weights twelve months on, and Teaforthree, although likely to go well for a long way, really disappointed me last time out and although there were reportedly excuses that run is concern enough for me to overlook him now in spite of putting him up at the start of the season as my National horse in my jumps Ten To Follow piece.
Chicago Grey, Join Together and Rare Bob all also look to be well-handicapped and it’d be no surprise to see one or all of them go well and be threatening come the elbow, though they aren’t for me this year. I also think Across The Bay could go well at an each-way price in spite of the yard having maybe two more fancied runners.
The horse for me in this year’s race though is the same horse I too spent most of last year building up for this race, last year’s fourth Evan Williams’ Cappa Bleu.
I’m honestly staggered at how leniently he’s been treated at the weights and after a hugely encouraging prep run he looks to have everything in his favour.
After last year I feared he’d blown his chance of National glory but the stars seem to have aligned for him again this time somehow, and with last year’s really solid fourth to build on, granted more luck in running than last year I can see him going exceedingly well and genuinely can’t see him out of the first four if he makes it all the way round.
Of the rest at a price I think veteran Big Fella Thanks could reward you each-way, he’s probably not good enough now and doesn’t quite stay well enough to win but he should be plodding on at the finish and could snatch fourth. At a bigger price I do think Any Currency could outrun his odds and could be one at a big price for you if you’re betting with a firm offering more than the traditional four places.
The real wildcard though this year is top weight Imperial Commander, we’ve seen more and more in recent years that horses carrying a big weight can still get very competitive in this thanks to their class and although he’s on 11st12 Imperial Commander is very well in if you think about how much more he’d carry than some of these in a conventional handicap and that at his peak he was a 185 horse.
Missing Cheltenham is a concern but this had been talked about as an option prior to that anyway, his trainer has a great record in the race and he does appeal to me as the sort of horse that could well over these fences. He’s been supported in the market so there’s not a massive amount of mileage left in him as an each-way bet now but I do still think he could be going very well for a long way and if he stays on once we get in to the unknown with him trip-wise then he could genuinely give us a fairytale victory in the race.
I’m a cynic at heart though and whilst I do fancy Imperial Commander to run a big race it’s Cappa Bleu all the way for me again this year and a victory for him would also give us that great Grand National story we always crave as well as he could be the first Welsh-trained winner of the race since 1905.
Grand National 2013 – Selected Best Odds:
On His Own 7/1
Seabass 10/1
Cappa Bleu 12/1
Chicago Grey 14/1
Colbert Station 14/1
Sunnyhillboy 16/1
Teaforthree 16/1
Imperial Commander 20/1
Join Together 20/1
Ballabriggs 25/1
Rare Bob 28/1
Balthazar King 33/1
Roberto Goldback 33/1
Treacle 33/1
Across The Bay 40/1
Big Fella Thanks 40/1
Harry The Viking 40/1
Soll 40/1
Tofino Bay 40/1
Any Currency 80/1
Recommendations:
Imperial Commander @ 20/1 (each-way) [Ladbrokes]
Big Fella Thanks @ 40/1 (each-way) [Bet Victor – NRNB, 6 places]
Any Currency @ 80/1 (each-way) [Bet Victor – NRNB, 6 places]
Already Advised:
Cappa Bleu @ 25/1 (each-way) [Bet Victor – NRFB]
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