 |
| Reporting For Duty - Super Duty looks a major player in the Kim Muir |
My complete run down of the Graded events at the festival can be viewed here but here I plan on having a brief look at my leading fancies in several of the week’s big handicap races.
First up is the JLT Speciality Handicap Chase and having suggested Our Mick as the one to be on in this race at 14/1 in my Gold Cup preview he is now a best priced 8/1 so we’re sitting a little pretty there.
He was third in the race last year off only a couple of pounds lower than he’ll compete off this year. His current favourable mark is in large part due to him parting company with Jason Maguire on his last start when he was all but knocked over by Katenko.
Given that on the back of that performance Katenko was considered by some to be a lively Gold Cup contender you’d have to say Our Mick holds a blinding chance here as he came cruising up alongside Katenko in that race and for me I think he’d have gone on and won the race. There’s no pocket-talking there either as I’d backed Bold Sir Brian that day.
I also suspect that Our Mick will go off considerably shorter again than the 8s still available as many of the others near the head of the betting aren’t nailed on to run here.
Having the winner of the first handicap of the week would be a great start to the festival and in Our Mick I think we have a horse that can provide us with that sought after victory to kick things off.
The Cross Country Chase is a race that I don’t particularly enjoy nor have too strong an opinion on usually. If you made me pick something right now I’d probably go for last year’s winner Balthazar King at 6/1 but I’m not going to be pretending that’s based on anything tangible and add him to the portfolio.
He has the all important course experience and has won at the festival which is always a plus, there will no doubt be dangers aplenty from across the Irish Sea though so it’s not a race I’d be advocating going in big on.
There is however a horse I like in the Pulteney Land Investments Novices' Handicap Chase and it’s another horse that has won at the festival previously – Gordon Elliot’s Carlito Brigante.
He was beaten favourite in the 2010 Triumph Hurdle but that race turned in to a bit of a mess with Barizan going off like a scalded cat and only just being reeled in by eventual winner Soldatino.
He came back the following year to land the Coral Cup before disappointingly pulling up in the same event last year. Now chasing, his festival experience will surely stand him in good stead for whichever race he tackles this year, and that race looks to be the Pulteney Land.
Currently a best priced 8/1 Carlito Brigante has warmed up for the festival by running in good-looking races behind the likes of Dynaste and Unioniste and was recently freshened up for this with a spin round the all-weather at Dundalk.
Gordon Elliot is sure to have some handicap plots for the week and although this doesn’t look to be anything too shady Carlito Brigante looks set to run off a good weight if he can recapture his best form, which often seems to come at this time of year.
Wednesday’s opener the National Hunt Chase is another race I’m yet to get a firm grip on. I’ve seen a few put up Godsmejudge and although I’m yet to have a bet in this race he looks to hold a strong chance on the back of his Warwick second over 3m5f earlier this year, and with the Alan King stable finally running in to a bit of form he could represent a bit of value at his current price of 10/1 as Boston Bob is currently favourite and taking a large chunk out of the market and isn’t certain to run.
Arguably the biggest handicap of the week also takes place on the Wednesday – the Coral Cup.
Donald McCain’s Son Of Flicka landed a monster gamble to take the race last year and though he’ll almost certainly be back to defend that crown it’s the master of the Cheltenham handicap David Pipe that has the horse I think will take all the beating if running.
Impressive grey Gevrey Chambertin was one of my ten to follow this National Hunt season and he has thus far more than justified inclusion in that list remaining unbeaten over hurdles.
It seems as though he’s entered in almost every race at the festival and though holding entries in two out of the three big novice hurdles I have long suspected that he’ll end up in a handicap.
I originally suspected it would be conditional jockeys race named after Pipe Senior on the Friday however I eventually came round to thinking it would be the Coral Cup following reports from Pipe’s press day the other week.
Though Gevrey Chambertin is still at the head of the market for the conditionals race I really hope he goes for the Coral Cup as to me he looks to have all the attributes to take this.
He’ll have to shoulder top weight if he goes for the Pipe race whereas he’ll only carry a tasty looking 10st13 in the Coral Cup. There were rumours that the Pipe team had wanted to aim Dynaste at a handicap last season but got his rating too high, they don’t look to have made that mistake this time around and Gevrey Chambertin looks very well treated, given how unexposed he remains, wherever he runs.
He’s still available at 12/1 (NRNB with Boylesports) for the Coral Cup and although he’s no better than 10/1 with most of the NRNB firms that still looks value because if it is declared that he runs here then I expect him to be considerably shorter and at least if you take an NRNB price you can switch your bet to the race he does go for as I fully expect this horse to be in the shake-up whichever race he tackles at this year’s festival.
I had a strong fancy in last year’s Fred Winter but this time around I’m struggling to pick anything as a stand-out. If Willie Mullins’ Fatcatinthehat (12/1) was to line-up here I think he’d have a chance but in a year that is becoming increasingly frustrating for targets still being up in the air he’s by no means certain to run.
In the Pertemps Final on Thursday Paul Nicholls’ Sam Winner looks to have been laid out for the race. Any semblance of a price is now gone and you couldn’t call his current price of 5/1 value by any stretch, but he looks the most likely winner and could end up shortening even further with many others at the head of the betting likely to run elsewhere.
He beat Peddlers Cross in a jumpers bumper last time out and was fourth at Cheltenham in the Triumph behind Zarkandar, Unaccompanied and Grandouet two years ago – that looks to have been a very strong renewal of the Triumph and any replication of that level of form would see him win this in any year. Getting in off 140 on 11st2 looks to be a serious handicap blot and though it’s not a highly original selection I fancy him to be very hard to beat.
The Byrne Group Plate will see one of last year’s best stories from the festival Hunt Ball try and build on his win in the Pulteney Lane. He’s been disappointing this season after last year’s landmark charge up the ratings but dropped back down to lesser company must surely see him in with a chance of adding further festival glory to his already impressive CV.
I’m undecided on this race at present but the betting would suggest it’s the most likely target of David Pipe’s Ballynagour who shot on to the scene with a 19l demolition at Warwick a couple of weeks ago.
He looks to be the traditional Pipe handicap blot and although his target is still up in the air wherever he runs his chance has to be respected.
The Byrne might be a race I’m still to get to the bottom of but the Kim Muir is very much one that I am pretty confident with.
Donald McCain’s Super Duty was already being well backed for the race but influential tipster Tom Segal putting him up as his best bet of the festival at the weekend has only seen the price contract further.
At one point considered a player for the RSA the decision to go down this route with him suggests connections think he’s well handicapped. Leading amateur Derek O’Connor has already been booked for steering duties as he bids to add another big win to his already burgeoning list of achievements, suggesting a big run is expected.
Super Duty has been consistent this year as a chaser and was a good novice hurdler last year, most notably chasing Simonsig’s shadow home in the Mersey at Aintree last April.
He has already won at Cheltenham this year and was unlucky to be beaten by the well-handicapped Goulanes last time out up at Wetherby. As always the Kim Muir looks ultra-competitive but the signs look there for a big run from Super Duty and there might not be much of the 6/1 still available left if he continues to be backed as he has been this last week.
Friday’s first handicap is the County Hurdle and it’s one at a bigger price that is carrying my money here.
Ifandbutwhynot was a good Cheltenham winner back at the open meeting in November, storming up the hill to beat the subsequently impressive Tanerko Emery. He then disappointed at Sandown but bounced back with a good win at Musselburgh last month.
He is a strong traveller and if Timmy Murphy, who gets on so well with him, is available for the ride then he could be one of Yorkshire’s leading chances for the week for David O’Meara’s yard.
He does hold other entries but the vibes seem to be that this will be his race and the current best price of 20/1 NRNB looks fantastic each-way value.
Although not a handicap as I didn’t cover the Foxhunters in my individual pieces I thought I’d give it a mention here.
I went close in the Foxhunters last year with a former Paul Nicholls horse in Chapoturgeon and although that one is back with another good chance it is another Nicholls horse I like the look of this year.
Three years ago Tricky Trickster was running in the Gold Cup and finishing ninth in the Grand National. Injuries have sadly had an effect on the longevity of his career but going hunter chasing after two years off seems to have at least brought him back to somewhere near his best.
He’s been ridiculously well backed for this race in recent weeks in spite of not winning his prep run and trainer Paul Nicholls gave him a big shout at a preview night recently.
If anywhere near his former best then he must surely go close here, as let’s not forget the record books show him with a victory over the mighty Denman not all that long ago.
10/1 isn’t quite as attractive as some of the prices you could get 1-2 weeks ago but it still looks big about a horse that in his prime was capable of mixing it at a considerably higher level than this.
The Conditionals race I’ve already touched on slightly and if Gevrey Chambertin were to run he’d be my idea of the winner, so as we’re now NRNB I’m going to put him up for that one too as I genuinely think that wherever he runs he’ll go very close.
He’s 9/1 NRNB with Boylesports so that will do for me but were he to run in the Coral Cup the aforementioned Tanerko Emery could be the Pipe’s leading contender to land the race named in Martin’s honour.
The Grand Annual is another race I’m yet to get to the bottom of but I don’t think it would be to reckless to venture that like David Pipe for his father’s race Nicky Henderson will be all guns blazing here to try and win the race named for his father.
I backed Henderson’s Kid Cassidy for this last year and he never really got going in it but he’s back again this year and is classy on his day, 10/1 seems about fair and though I’m not confident enough to put him up just yet he stands out at this point as a big player.
With a few exceptions that’s every race at this year’s festival now covered and the portfolio of bets is looking pretty strong. There are a few of my earlier bets that now don’t look as good as they did at the time but several that now look to be good bits of value.
With just over a week to go now the anticipation for this year’s Cheltenham Festival is building with every second, and hopefully in addition to a great week of racing Festival Focus will have been able to flag up a few nice-priced winners.
Recommendations:
Pulteney Land Investments Novices' Handicap Chase – Carlito Brigante to win @ 8/1 (Paddy Power) [NRNB]
Coral Cup – Gevrey Chambertin to win @ 12/1 (Boylesports) [NRNB]
Pertemps Final – Sam Winner to win @ 5/1 (Betfred) [NRNB]
Kim Muir – Super Duty to win @ 6/1 (William Hill)
County Hurdle – Ifandbutwhynot each-way @ 20/1 (Betfred) [NRNB]
Foxhunters – Tricky Trickster to win @ 10/1 (SkyBet) [NRNB]
Conditionals Handicap Hurdle – Gevrey Chambertin to win @ 9/1 (Boylesports) [NRNB]
Cheltenham 2013 Portfolio:
Supreme Novices’ – Dodging Bullets @ 14/1
Arkle – Overturn @ 7/1
Festival Handicap Chase - Our Mick @ 14/1
Champion Hurdle – Grandouet @ 7/1 [NRFB]
Mares Hurdle – Quevega @ 8/11
Pulteney Land – Carlito Brigante @ 8/1 [NRNB]
Neptune – Puffin Billy @ 9/1
RSA – Boston Bob @ 7/1
Queen Mother – Sprinter Sacre @ 1/2
Coral Cup – Gevrey Chambertin @ 12/1 [NRNB]
Bumper – Clondaw Court @ 12/1 (e/w) and Pure Science @ 16/1 (e/w)
Jewson – Captain Conan @ 4/1 [NRFB]
Pertemps – Sam Winner @ 5/1 [NRNB]
Ryanair – First Lieutenant @ 12/1
World Hurdle – Bog Warrior @ 10/1 [NRFB] and Trustan Times @ 40/1 (e/w)
Kim Muir – Super Duty @ 6/1
Triumph Hurdle - Our Conor @ 6/1
County Hurdle – Ifandbutwhynot @ 20/1 (e/w) [NRNB]
Albert Bartlett - Coneygree @ 16/1
Gold Cup – Long Run @ 7/1 and Imperial Commander @ 50/1 (e/w) [NRFB]
Foxhunters – Tricky Trickster @ 10/1 [NRNB]
Conditionals Handicap Hurdle – Gevrey Chambertin @ 9/1 [NRNB]
No comments:
Post a Comment