Lincoln 2013 - Big Race Preview

Horse Mythology - Nine Realms can land another Lincoln for William Haggas.

Along with the Grand National forming one half of the spring double, the Lincoln traditionally signifies the start of the flat season and the Doncaster feature, like it’s Aintree counterpart, is a notoriously difficult puzzle to solve.

At least with the Grand National you have some sort of form line from the season but given that the Lincoln is the first big race of the flat season it is tricky to know just what sort of form many of the leading protagonists are in with most of the form coming from either the all-weather or last year.

Last year’s winner Brae Hill is back for more but the old adage with this race is to look for the Group performer in a handicap, and I think I may have found just that sort of horse in William Haggas’s Nine Realms.

He’s been well supported at the head of the market for this since the early prices went up and looks to have the right sort of profile for the race.

Unexposed, but with a progressive sort of look to his form, Nine Realms was second behind the useful Cogito on his debut with Cheltenham Festival winner Flaxen Flare further down the field in ninth that day.

He got off the mark back in May with an impressively comfortable Leicester win and has not been seen since, in spite of holding a St. James’ Palace entry at one stage.

To me this looks a plot and William Haggas is a trainer to very much be respected in big handicaps, especially the Lincoln having won the race three times including three years ago with Penitent and in 2007 with Very Wise.

The ground could be a concern however and I’d rate his chance even higher if we saw it dry out a bit first. His perceived lack of experience having only run in maidens could be another negative but he has a trainer that will no doubt have him in peak form for this valuable contest and if able to give his running must go close off what looks an incredibly lenient opening mark.

Haggas likes to target the Lincoln and went close with another pattern-class performer in Fury last year. Nine Realms could be a good bit better than this, and to me although a boring selection the top price of 6/1 still available looks reasonably fair as I can see him going off much shorter if lining up.

Another that has a similar profile to Nine Realms is John Gosden’s Lahaag, another that has been well-supported at the head of the market. Given the way the Gosden team kicked off last season you’d be a brave person to suggest they won’t hit the ground running this time around too.

Lahaag appears to have been given the patient approach Gosden is renowned for and like the favourite could have bigger prizes in his sights in time, he has handicap experience which could help him handle the hustle and bustle of a race like the Lincoln better and would not look to be as ground dependent as Nine Realms.

That said the favourite could still be well ahead of the handicapper and has looked more like the true personification of a Group horse in a handicap.

Of the rest, Captain Bertie is a consistent sort who always runs his race and is well-versed in large field handicaps while Lincoln Trial winner Strictly Silver has obvious claims, though that race hasn’t exactly been a prominent trial for the big race in recent years in spite of its name.

The more I look at it though the more convinced I become that Nine Realms is a cut above these rivals and if afforded a bit of luck with the ground and in running he could really make light of his opening mark.

Lincoln 2013 - Selected Best Odds:

Nine Realms 6/1
Captain Bertie 8/1
Lahaag 8/1
Strictly Silver 10/1
Chapter Seven 12/1
Tandem 14/1
Eshtibaak 16/1
Garde Cotiere 16/1
Gladys Gal 16/1
Hit The Jackpot 16/1
Anton Chigurh 20/1
Arsaadi 20/1
Brae Hill 20/1
Global Village 20/1
Guest of Honour 20/1
Shamaal Nibras 20/1
Solar Deity 20/1

Recommendation:

Back Nine Realms to win @ 6/1 (Bet Victor, Bet 365 and Others)