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| Running Up That Hill - last year's Bumper winner Briar Hill can follow up in the Albert Bartlett |
That said, it is one of the top two I fancy for the novice staying hurdle event, and a previous festival winner at that.
Willie Mullins once again has an exceptional pack of novice hurdlers and it’s taken some shuffling to get each horse in the right place. You’d be a brave person to suggest that the final plans were anywhere near concrete just yet but thankfully now Bet365 have gone Non Runner No Bet on every festival race it allows us to wager ante-post with a lot less trepidation.
Time and time again at Cheltenham you see horses that have run well at the festival before replicate that form, and in recent years the number of horses that have won a race and then come back and won again the following year has been rather startling.
The Champion Bumper in particular is a race in which victorious horses, and even placed horses, almost always come back in latter years and run well again.
Just in the last six years we’ve had Dunguib finish in the money in the Supreme twelve months on from a runaway Bumper success, Cue Card come back and run well in the Supreme before a placed effort in the Arkle and a dominant Ryanair win and most recently Champagne Fever win the Supreme one year removed from taking the Bumper.
Last year’s Bumper winner Briar Hill also hails from the Willie Mullins yard and comes in to this year’s festival with a perfect record.
He has a big reputation at home and though he hasn’t had to show too much over hurdles to date he has festival form in the bag, has strong Bumper form to his name, a Grade 2 win over obstacles already on his resume and looks for all the world like the step-up in trip will only glean further improvement.
Trained by a master and likely to have the greatest jump jockey currently riding on his back Briar Hill has a great deal in his favour, and in all honesty I’m surprised he isn’t favourite given that Mullins has a number of horses heading other markets at the moment that probably don’t deserve to be there and only are due to who trains them.
As a result, in spite of being pretty short in the betting in a race potentially ripe for exploiting some value in, Briar Hill actually rates good value in my eyes and could, if Mullins has the week many are predicting, end up favourite and much, much shorter still.
Favourite for the race is currently David Pipe’s King’s Palace, a horse that has been very impressive in notching two wins at the home of jump racing at the end of last year.
He made the step-up to obstacles mid-way through last season and fell on his first start, but he’s unbeaten this season over timber and won his last two races – the second a Grade 2 – by a combined thirty-two lengths jumping quickly and accurately and really tanking clear up the hill.
The form of neither race is particularly strong though and I actually think he could end up setting this race up perfectly for Briar Hill to pick him off on that long run-in.
Visually he’s been scintillating but I think he’s just too short and though he could very well go and win just as impressively again here I think Briar Hill deserves to be ahead of him given what they’ve both actually achieved to date.
Challow winner Captain Cutter sits next in the betting representing last year’s winning owner JP McManus.
He was relatively friendless prior to that Challow win but did it in good style and is also unbeaten since taking to hurdles. His Bumper form is strong – he actually holds a victory over King’s Palace in that sphere – and he’ll benefit from having Tony McCoy on board.
At 10/1 best price currently he could look a big each-way price come the day, as given what he’s achieved he probably shouldn’t be so much bigger than the front two.
Faugheen and Red Sherlock are prominent in the market but both look Neptune bound while Deputy Dan would definitely be of interest in a bog but the most appealing each-way proposition at present to me is Philip Hobbs’ Champagne West.
Champagne West actually handed Deputy Dan his only hurdles defeat to date, and after a rather inauspicious start to his hurdling, when he trailed in ninth of twelve some eighty-odd lengths behind after a calamitous mistake, his only subsequent defeat came at the hands of dark horse for the World Hurdle Beat That.
He could go to the Pertemps but with the same yard having Fingal Bay for that one and this race looking very open outside of the top three they should take their chance here and if he lines up he’ll surely be much shorter on the day.
He stays well, will not be adversely affected whatever the ground and represents powerful connections, outside of the first three in the betting he interests me most.
The most likely winner for me though is Briar Hill and I fancy him to enhance the stats of festival form and returning Bumper winners counting for a lot.
It would not surprise me in the slightest to see him end up favourite on the day, so 4/1 NRNB and best odds guaranteed looks more than generous at this point.
Recommendation:
Briar Hill 1pt win @ 4/1 (Bet365) [NRNB]
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