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| Ell of a Chance - Tiger Roll can go close in the Triumph for Gordon Elliot |
Guitar Pete’s subsequent exploits though have resurrected some shred of hope that Nicky Henderson’s former Ballydoyle inmate can still factor in the final reckoning of Friday’s opening race.
It wasn’t so much the horses that beat him that day that was so off-putting, as Broughton currently sits fourth in the betting for the festival juvenile contest and was an above average flat performer for Mark Johnston while winner Fox Norton also looks a decent sort, but the visual of Royal Irish Hussar’s effort.
He looked all at sea on the run-in and there really weren’t any excuses to be made. You have to just forgive and forget that run, if like me, you’ve already backed him for the Triumph and thankfully Guitar Pete has significantly boosted both his, and in the process, Broughton’s form.
Dessie Hughes won this race last year in superb style with Our Conor and though Guitar Pete doesn’t look quite in the same league as a horse that could very well win the Champion Hurdle this year he is a tough consistent horse and has proven top class form in the bag which many of these don’t.
A winner at both Grade 1 and Grade 2 level he burst a considerable amount of bubbles when landing the same race his stable mate took twelve months ago on trials day at Leopardstown, and his course and distance effort behind my ante-post pick back in November has to stand him in a good position for this race having had a sighter of the course.
Current favourite for the race is Nick Williams’ Le Rocher a horse that’s been making hay in the quagmires we’ve been encountering this winter. He’s looked very good in easily dispatching Nicky Henderson’s Kentucky Hyden on two separate occasions and his trainer is a master at handling these young French recruits.
Whether he’ll be seen to as good effect on ground that is likely to be a good bit less testing than he’s been winning on in this country thus far though remains to be seen and at no bigger than 7/1 in a more wide open than normal looking race I’d be inclined to take him on.
Paul Nicholls’ French import Calipto comes next in the market and though he hasn’t been winning the sort of races the favourite has, he to remains unbeaten on our shores and will surely be popular for the trainer that won this with Zarkandar three years ago.
The same ground unknowns apply as they do with Le Rocher but any amount of improvement for better ground would certainly see him right in the mix and he looks more than capable of staying up the hill.
John Quinn’s Pearl Castle made hard work of his Doncaster win earlier this week and though there was a lot to like about the way he battled after not having the easiest of races it didn’t jump out at me as a performance from a horse capable of winning a Triumph Hurdle.
Quinn of course took this with Countrywide Flame two years ago so it would be no surprise to see him send out another winner but I think there could be one or two that go on to prove quite a bit better than this admirable horse.
The other horse I like to supplement my ante-post wager on Royal Irish Hussar is Tiger Roll for Gordon Elliot and the mighty Gigginstown House Stud.
The Grand National-winning handler is on record as saying this is his best chance of a winner at the festival and from a man that normally has at least one handicap blot in one of the handicap races that is a telling statement.
Twice raced over hurdles he debuted with a facile victory at Market Rasen shocking supporters of long odds on favourite Zamoyski (the same horse that chased home Pearl Castle this week).
The son of Derby winner Authorized then made the switch to Elliot after being purchased by Gigginstown and made his first appearance for his new yard chasing home Guitar Pete in the aforementioned Spring Juvenile.
He made a slight mistake at the last that day and though he probably wouldn’t have beat the winner he’d more than likely have been closer and in a Grade 1 event, on only his second start over obstacles that’s a fair effort and there will certainly be further improvement to come.
Elliot is a very shrewd operator and this horse will no doubt be tuned up to perfection come the big day and he showed he can get these four-year-olds ready for Cheltenham when sending out Flaxen Flare to win the Fred Winter twelve months ago.
Tiger Roll is entered at Fairyhouse in a Grade 2 on Saturday and you can bet if he turns in another solid effort then he’ll be quite a bit shorter than he’s currently available at. Conversely if he doesn’t quite perform he may drift and he is liable to be up against a new Willie Mullins recruit named All Pepper that has been cut across the board this week for the Triumph ahead of this first run for Mullins.
Any mileage in a speculative bet on that one turning out to be a world beater is long gone now but an impressive performance on Saturday would see a complete capitulation in price so depending on whether you get swept up in the hype around these new Mullins recruits it may be worth waiting for the final declarations for Saturday before investing in one of these horse for the Triumph.
Aidan O’Brien’s Plinth is the last horse worth mentioning at this stage but he looks held by both Guitar Pete and Tiger Roll on that last race, however he had been highly talked of previously and represents some of the most powerful connections in the sport so is dismissed at your peril.
With one double figure ante-post bet already lodged I’m hoping that Guitar Pete turns out to be the key form line for this year’s race, as in Royal Irish Hussar we have a horse that pretty easily disposed of him in a Grade 2 and in Tiger Roll a horse that could have been much closer to him without a mistake and with more experience last time in a strong Grade 1 trial for this race.
As always the Triumph will be a difficult puzzle to solve but with two horses to go to war with, both of whom should be there or thereabouts at the very least, I can hopefully follow up last year’s winner with another good start to the final day of the festival.
Recommendation:
Tiger Roll 0.5pt e/w @ 14/1 (Bet Victor) [NRFB]
Already Advised:
Royal Irish Hussar 0.5pt e/w @ 16/1
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