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| Wishing For a Star - Wishfull Thinking is one of two fragile but talented Ryanair selections |
As things stand the race won by the likes of Imperial Commander, Albertas Run, Riverside Theatre and Cue Card has several horses at the head of the market that are unlikely to run.
Aside from current ante-post favourite Benefficient (winner of the novice equivalent of this race last year) the first seven in the betting all look unlikely to run here with the majority – Cue Card, Al Ferof, First Lieutenant and Dynaste – all looking like heading for the Gold Cup.
Obviously if any of these top class performers did line up here they would be feared and more than likely be a rather short-priced favourite come the off.
For the purposes of this piece though we’re going to assume that none of the aforementioned horses take the soft option and come to the Ryanair in spite of its Grade 1 status, rather electing to go for glory in the Gold Cup.
Because if you also take out Marito due to a reported setback that means he’s unlikely to run and Arvika Ligeonniere as he is more likely to go for the shorter option and tackle the Champion Chase then the race truly has fallen apart and you’re 16/1 the field.
Benefficient put a lacklustre effort in the Charlie Hall behind him when winning the Dial-a-bet Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas and given his impressive effort in the Jewson here last March probably warrants his place towards the top of the market.
Is he rock solid enough to be favourite for this race though? I have my doubts and at his current price he looks ripe for taking on.
Captain Conan was my leading fancy for the Jewson last year but ultimately he failed to deliver. He bounced back in emphatic fashion though at Aintree running away with the Manifesto Chase when sent off a well backed favourite.
He turned in a laboured effort in the Tingle Creek on his only start this season though and there is still a suspicion that he’s not quite as effective over 2m4f as he is over the minimum distance in spite of that Aintree romp.
Menorah could be a big player in this if lining up but he too could end up in the Gold Cup given he’s been campaigned over further thus far and again looks set to take in 3m in the Denman Chase this weekend. Couple that with the fact Captain Chris still looks averse to going left-handed and his owners may want an optimistic shot at glory in the Gold Cup.
He has a decent Cheltenham record though, even though he was pulled up in this last season, and were he to take in the Ryanair would certainly be considered.
As would stable mate Wishfull Thinking who is perhaps more likely to take his chance in this race. He travelled supremely well to win a Cheltenham Grade 3 last time out under a big weight and it could just be that he’s put his problems behind him.
He’s a difficult horse to catch right but he actually has a surprisingly consistent record and for me he looks a horse that critically will actually take his chance in this race and if he does then I think he should be in with a very good chance of once again making the frame at a track he seems to save many of his best runs for.
Former winner Riverside Theatre is another player and almost a confirmed runner at this point and can go well again but he’s had his problems and though he seemed to still be a classy horse when winning the Peterborough a somewhat uncharacteristic blunder in the King George last time out isn’t confidence boosting.
Another horse I couldn’t resist having a small each-way punt on NRNB is Last Instalment.
He’s a horse I’ve always liked and was so disappointed he missed his sophomore season last year and the festival in his novice campaign.
He returned from that lengthy absence with a spectacular run at Thurles though and if he can get to Cheltenham right he could be a really interesting dark horse in whichever race he goes for.
He’s out at the weekend in the Irish Hennessy which would suggest the Gold Cup is more likely perhaps, but surely the sponsor is going to want to try and win his own race; and with Sir Des Champs out of the Gold Cup and First Lieutenant their big hope in that this time Last Instalment could end up doing what First Lieutenant did last year and go for the middle distance contest.
He is more of a staying sort but any sort of soft in the going description could see him a very attractive proposition for this if he runs well at the weekend.
If he does go well at the weekend he will certainly contract in price for both races but NRNB means wherever he goes you don’t lose out if we get on now.
His jumping is very assured and though his lightly raced career is more of a reflection of the problems he’s had its still very impressive reading and he’s only been out of the money once, and never when completing.
What this all serves to say is that the Ryanair this year looks wide open but in Wishfull Thinking and Last Instalment you have two consistent performers who if arriving sound and on their game will offer blinding value at their current prices.
Recommendation:
Wishfull Thinking 0.5pt e/w @ 16/1 NRNB (Bet365)
Last Instalment 0.5pt e/w @ 16/1 NRNB (Bet365)
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