Festival Focus - Arkle Trophy 2015

Smash and Grab - Smashing looks the each way call in the Arkle.

Conventional wisdom since Un De Sceaux’s romp in the Irish equivalent of this race has been that if he jumps round he wins.

Having backed Willie Mullins’ flying machine back at the start of the season it’s left me struggling with what to suggest for this race given that in an ideal world I’d be tipping Un De Sceaux, only at a much bigger price than he currently is.

Much like with Faugheen in the Champion Hurdle though I can’t bring myself to tip an odds on shot and until very recently I was struggling for an each-way alternative to recommend to the jolly.

However that has changed with the announcement that one of Un De Sceaux’s previous victims is perhaps unexpectedly now being targeted here for another crack at his old rival.

I’ll get to that in a minute though, first the favourite.

Un De Sceaux began his chasing career with a shock fall when sent off at 1/8 at Thurles, he was streaking clear that day as is his way and would almost certainly have won but for that novicey fall where he just failed to get the landing gear down in time.

Festival Focus - JLT Novices' Chase 2015

Got My Vaut - If last year's Supreme winner takes his chance he'll be tough to beat in the JLT

With less than eight weeks to go now until the greatest show on turf it’s time to kick off this year’s festival focus series, and it’s the opener of Thursday’s card that has me pulling the trigger on the first ante-post advice of the year.

Rather surprisingly given how fearful the bookies usually are of the Willie Mullins battalions from a long range perspective, the horse I’m interested in here has actually lost his position at the head of the market with some firms in recent weeks.

The reason for this is two-fold, one, because as is always the case this time of year, the uncertainty over where Mullins will aim his most deadly weapons still reigns supreme and his big guns could be rerouted at any time between now and the tapes rising the second week in March, and the second is the crushing bump he took on Boxing Day in the Racing Post Novice Chase which resulted in a remarkable defeat to Clarcam.

I am of course talking about last year’s Supreme winner Vautour.