Festival Focus - Neptune Novices' Hurdle 2015

Grand Cranyon - Nichols Canyon looks a worthy favourite in the Neptune.

With NRNB now available with a couple of bookies on either all or most of the races at the Cheltenham festival the Neptune can now be looked at with a bit more confidence having been a race that had, and still has for that matter, several question marks over it.

As the middle distance hurdles race for novices the Neptune is often the most difficult race to assess from a long range perspective given its interim distance.

You’re highly unlikely to see a horse tried over 2m or 3m drop back or step up to one or the other, however it is much the norm to see horses campaigned over two and a half miles to do either.

That makes the Neptune a tough race to call because there is a very good chance the race will cut up and there a number of horses prominent in the betting that look nailed on to run in one of the other two novice hurdle events.

The recent vibes though seem to suggest that classy flat recruit Nichols Canyon – currently heading the betting for the race – will indeed run here and with the NRNB concession now in effect you can back him safe in the knowledge that should there be a late twist in the tail before the start of the festival and the Mullins pack is reshuffled your bet will simply be voided.

Festival Focus - Ryanair Chase 2015

A-Ma-zing - Ma Filleule looks to have a great chance in the Ryanair.

The half way house that is the Ryanair once again looks like being the destination of choice this year for the waifs and strays that aren’t quick enough for the Champion Chase or quite capable of staying the gruelling Gold Cup trip.

However with a couple of second season chasers proving themselves high class performers over the interim distance this season, the race is far from merely just an afterthought of an event for those not capable of cutting it in the championship contests.

With Al Ferof and Dynaste now out of the festival and Champagne Fever seemingly aiming at the Champion Chase the top of the market for this year’s Ryanair now has a very different complexion to a few weeks back.

The reformed Don Cossack rightfully sits at the head of the betting, as he has for much of the season having finally fulfilled the potential we all knew he had.

He’s won four Graded races this season including the Grade 1 John Durkan and has looked impressive each time in doing so.

Festival Focus - Champion Hurdle 2015

C-Irv Ball - Irving is my speculative outside bet to sneak a place in Tuesday's feature.

This year’s Champion Hurdle and Arkle currently leave me in somewhat of a quandary, because having backed the two now short-priced favourites for both races a while back and got something actually resembling a decent(ish) price I want to tip both for each respective race but I can’t bring myself to tip even money and odds on shots in Cheltenham festival races.

I truly believe that Faugheen and Un De Sceaux will both win on the opening day and in the process create yet another ‘Ruby Tuesday’ but with their prices both long gone the task now is finding some semblance of value left in both races so as not to come across like one of the many ‘boom merchants’ you find on Twitter these days celebrating ‘tipping’ a horse that is odds on.

The obvious value call in the Champion Hurdle is Jezki each-way at 6/1 as the big three look like being tough to keep out of the places. It seems lazy to simply go for that easy option though even if a seemingly easy return is usually desperately needed during Cheltenham week!

Beaten three times by Hurricane Fly this season Jezki was even beaten for second by Arctic Fire last time out, throwing an element of doubt on the big three will be the 1-2-3 argument mentioned above.

He did make a pretty serious blunder at the last flight that day though and his season has charted a similar course to last year when he of course claimed glory in this race.

I do think he’ll be seen to better effect at the festival, but I’m greedy and an eternal optimist so I’m going to look for a horse at a bigger price that could capitalise should one of the big three not fire and miss the frame.

Festival Focus – RSA Chase 2015

On Top At The Pols - Don Poli can stay on for glory in the RSA.

This year’s RSA picture is muddied by the fact that the two horses at the head of the market at present could both run in different races at the festival.

After Coneygree’s impressive romp at the weekend – and given what an open (read, terrible) renewal of the race it looks – I’d say connections will now go for the Gold Cup with him.

Don Poli on the other hand has long been touted for the four-miler but I for one cannot see Willie Mullins not running his best staying novice in the RSA, regardless of whether that means son Patrick will get to ride him in the amateur event.

I’ve been keen on Don Poli all season – he was one of my horses to follow this season – and he’s done nothing to dampen that enthusiasm in his two chase starts to date, including when winning a good renewal of the Topaz (a solid RSA trial) at Leopardstown over Christmas, the form of which was franked at the weekend by Apache Stronghold.

With Valseur Lido looking more like a horse for which the intermediate trip will be more his bag, Gigginstown don’t really have another representative for the RSA, whereas for the four-miler they have a readymade alternative in Wounded Warrior and could also run Thunder and Roses and Very Wood.

Festival Focus – Cheltenham Gold Cup 2015

Gold Cup Des-tiny - Houblon Des Obeaux looks hugely overpriced in the big one.

Anyone that loves horse racing will tell you that there are no small races at the Cheltenham festival – not even the Cross Country – but the one festival race that rightly stands out as the showpiece of the week is the Cheltenham Gold Cup.

We’ve been treated to some thrilling moments over the years in this great contest, including last year’s bizarre, but no less heart-pounding, finish.

This year’s running of the Gold Cup is one of the most open looking renewals of the race in living memory and thus there are some pretty tasty prices floating around.

Since mid-November the market has correctly revolved around Silviniaco Conti following his impressive victories in the Betfair Chase and the King George.

He is without question the best staying chaser in training and he looks a very worthy favourite on paper.

Festival Focus - Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle 2015

Time For Heroes - No More Heroes can land the Albert Bartlett on his way to superstardom.

Gigginstown House Stud have a wealth of novice hurdling talent this season, perhaps to even rival and maybe surpass that of the Riccis.

Some of these star names however have suffered shock reverses already this campaign, with the likes of Milsean and Tell Us More tasting defeat at skinny prices and thus being labelled as having failed to live up to the hype.

However one Gigginstown novice hurdler has so far this season actually exceeded the lofty expectations that we had for him this campaign and although he is now much shorter than when he was flagged up as one of my ten to follow this season he still looks a good price to me for a race that has been a showcase for top chasers to be to strut their stuff in.

And make no mistake, No More Heroes will be a top chaser – possibly even a Gold Cup winner in time – but for now over the smaller obstacles he will aim to emulate the likes of Bobs Worth and Weapons Amnesty by landing this on the way to Grade 1 success over fences.

Festival Focus - World Hurdle 2015

Tout Infinity and Beyond - Un Temps Pour Tout can justify the hype in the World Hurdle.

It could look like there’s an element of stealing other people’s tips here given that two tipsters that I have a lot of time for have also put up the same horse that I’m about to for the World Hurdle as well in recent days.

However a look back at my ten to follow post for this national hunt season from last September will show that even back then I was weighing up this horse for the top contests over hurdles this term.

I am of course talking about David Pipe’s expensive French import Un Temps Pout Tout.

Not yet seen this season, Pipe recently announced that he is set to reappear in the Cleeve Hurdle next Saturday with a World Hurdle tilt the aim.

As such, in a wide open looking renewal of the staying contest now looks the time to back him, as a good run – and he does go well fresh – in the Cleeve will surely see his price come in further.

A stand out 20/1 at the moment with Ladbrokes (although they aren’t NRNB at present, but the risk looks worth it) the Pond House inmate built on his high class French form with three good efforts last season after making the switch to Pipe for an astronomical fee.

Festival Focus – Mares Hurdle 2015

Keep Calm and Carrig On - Carrigmoorna Rock looks a place alternative to the hot favourite

The Mares Hurdle this year once again revolves around a Willie Mullins super mare, but with six time winner Quevega now enjoying retirement a new name is finally set to be added to the roll of honour and if Annie Power makes it to the race then she will more than likely emulate her former stable mate by claiming victory in the Mares Hurdle.

Whether or not last year’s World Hurdle runner up will line-up though remains up in the air, although Mullins has only today issued a bulletin that she is back riding out and the Mares Hurdle is indeed the intended festival target.

Even coming off an absence of what will be almost ten months she would be nigh on unbeatable if she turns up, but her price of course reflects this. Mullins proved with Quevega that he can bring a mare back from a long lay-off to run away with this race so that isn’t really a concern and the fact she’s still only tasted defeat once under rules should rate her as almost as much of a banker as Quevega has been for the last half decade or so.

Therefore the value call at this stage is to look for an each-way alternative that can bring a nice return simply by chasing home the Mullins superstar or perhaps land the spoils should Annie Power not make Cheltenham.

Festival Focus - JLT Novices' Chase 2015

Got My Vaut - If last year's Supreme winner takes his chance he'll be tough to beat in the JLT

With less than eight weeks to go now until the greatest show on turf it’s time to kick off this year’s festival focus series, and it’s the opener of Thursday’s card that has me pulling the trigger on the first ante-post advice of the year.

Rather surprisingly given how fearful the bookies usually are of the Willie Mullins battalions from a long range perspective, the horse I’m interested in here has actually lost his position at the head of the market with some firms in recent weeks.

The reason for this is two-fold, one, because as is always the case this time of year, the uncertainty over where Mullins will aim his most deadly weapons still reigns supreme and his big guns could be rerouted at any time between now and the tapes rising the second week in March, and the second is the crushing bump he took on Boxing Day in the Racing Post Novice Chase which resulted in a remarkable defeat to Clarcam.

I am of course talking about last year’s Supreme winner Vautour.