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| Gree-t Expectations - Coneygree looks massively overpriced for the Albert Bartlett |
Last year saw the ill-fated Brindisi Breeze gallop his opponents in to the ground and it is highly likely we could see a similar sort of display this year too.
Like so many festival races many of the perceived leading protagonists in the race could end up elsewhere yet, and more so than many of the other races there looks a very real possibility that the Albert Bartlett could completely fall apart.
Pont Alexandre looks more likely to go for the Neptune (for which he is a short priced favourite) as does Taquin Du Seuil. Champagne Fever would too seem an unlikely contender at this point as in spite of getting his career back on track recently with another Grade 1 win last year’s Champion Bumper winner has seemed better suited to two and a half miles.
I absolutely adore Gevrey Chambertin and although I would love to see him contest this I have my suspicions that he may be aimed at one of the more valuable handicaps during the week, several of which he holds entries in.
If Grands Crus’ full brother were to line-up here I’d give him an outstanding each-way chance, as he has always looked a future superstar but I’m going to proceed on the basis he does go down the handicap route.
My idea of the winner of this race has always been Coneygree and I’ve backed him for the race at considerably shorter than he is now.
Prior to his third over an inadequate trip behind At Fishers Cross and the hugely talented The New One he was disputing favouritism for this race, but on the back of that admittedly disappointing run he has drifted massively in the market and his current price quite frankly is an insult.
Carruthers’ half-brother is an out and out stayer and will surely be a major player on the staying chase scene in time. He has always been fancied for this race since bursting on to the scene this season and as I said prior to his disappointing run last time out he was considered one of the favourites.
I don’t really see what he did to deserve pushing out so much; he was up against two very smart horses, one of which looks one of the top two and a half milers in the country and the other who is a ground specialist.
Although he’s won over 2m4f this season, the trip would not have suited Coneygree as much as 3m will and as a prep, although I’d have liked to have seen him closer up, I was quite content with it.
It is somewhat disconcerting that we’ve not seen him since, especially when this weekend’s Haydock trial for the Albert Bartlett had been earmarked for him but until I hear reports of him being less than 100% I’m going to trust in Mark Bradstock.
His two Grade 2-winning performances at the track already this year have taken some knocks form-wise but there’s no getting away from just how impressive Coneygree was in winning them.
We know he gets up the hill, and I can genuinely see him just galloping on and running them in to the ground come festival Friday.
I’d have been happy to tip him at half the price so 16/1 looks an absolute monster price as I’m pretty sure if he was trained by a sexier trainer that he’d be favourite.
Current favourite for the race however is Ballycasey for Willie Mullins, and although he’s been impressive in his limited starts thus far and remains unbeaten, he’s beaten absolutely nothing so how he can be a third of the price of a horse with two Grade 2s under his belt is beyond me.
Obviously the Mullins-Ricci connection has to be respected at all times as they don’t have much dross in training, but I can’t have him as short as he is on what he’s achieved on the track to date.
That’s not to say he won’t win, but at the prices you simply have to look elsewhere.
Coneygree’s conqueror from trials day At Fishers Cross comes next in the market and the Rebecca Curtis inmate is a lot more deserving of his quite short price than Ballycasey is for me.
He’d perhaps unfairly been somewhat overlooked amidst the hype of Coneygree and The New One clashing last time out but under a trademark McCoy ride he soon put himself on everyone’s minds for Cheltenham with an impressive win.
He’s two from two round Prestbury Park and has some good form in the book, not least that victory on trials day. Unbeaten this season over a variety of trips the suggestion has been that 3m is his optimum and he will be a major player if lining up for the Albert Bartlett.
One big concern with this horse is that all his form is on soft ground or worse and whether he’ll be quite as effective should the ground improve in time for the festival remains to be seen.
With Tony McCoy, who gets on with him so well, on board At Fishers Cross is definitely the one I fear most in the Albert Bartlett but I can’t have him so much shorter than Coneygree in the betting, so the value call is without a doubt the latter.
African Gold from the Nigel Twiston-Davies yard too has been in good form this season and has form across the spectrum of ground conditions. He’s yet to tackle 3m though and in a race that requires an out and out stayer that would be a concern to me.
This one is also yet to beat anything of any real substance and is also yet to run at Cheltenham, which are negatives in any book.
Jonjo O’Neill’s inexperienced but talented Cloudy Copper is one that could go well and offers better value than some of the shorter priced entrants.
His victory at Kempton last month giving weight to Hold On Julio looks a solid bit of form and he looks an improver.
Inish Island from the Mullins yard has a wealth of experience which will certainly give him somewhat of an edge over several of these, and has been a picture of consistency in those numerous runs.
He was beaten by At Fishers Cross getting weight back at Cheltenham in December though and you’d struggle to argue that there’s much chance of that form being reversed off level weights.
Noel Meade’s Road To Riches is another unbeaten horse coming in to the race but has form lacking in any real substance so it’s hard to know just what to make of him as he could be anything.
Our Vinnie is another that further reinforces a strong Irish hand and has some good form in the bag; he’s had a spin round Cheltenham and beat the impressive Rule The World at Cork earlier in the season.
He was a very well beaten third behind Pont Alexandre last time out over an arguably inadequate trip but if he can bounce back to somewhere near the sort of form he had been in previously he could be there or thereabouts.
Rule The World put up arguably one of the performances of the season when sauntering to victory in the Grade 2 Slaney at Naas last month but there is the suspicion that maybe he was flattered somewhat there as Champagne Fever completely capitulated.
Minsk is no mug though and Rule The World gave him a thorough hiding with seemingly plenty in hand and were he to take his chance in the Albert Bartlett he’d be one I’d very much like to keep on side.
I do suspect he’ll be more likely to show up in the Neptune were he to head to the festival however, as would, in my opinion, fellow Irish raider and good yardstick Busty Brown.
The Irish raiding party for this year’s Albert Bartlett looks the strongest it’s been for some time and the race does have an open feel to it with cases to be made for many of the rumoured participants.
I’ve always been confident Coneygree can run a massive race in this year’s Albert Bartlett en route to become a chasing star like his half-brother though.
He may have not been at his best last time out but I’m of the opinion that wasn’t his true self and if the Coneygree that impressed so mightily earlier in the season turns up in just under four weeks time I think he’ll take some pegging back.
16/1 is massive and those foolish enough to have him marked up at that price deserve to be taken full advantage of.
Albert Bartlett – Selected Best Odds:
Ballycasey 5/1
At Fishers Cross 6/1
Pont Alexandre 8/1
Gevrey Chambertin 14/1
African Gold 16/1
Champagne Fever 16/1
Cloudy Copper 16/1
Coneygree 16/1
Inish Island 16/1
Road To Riches 16/1
Our Vinnie 16/1
Taquin Du Seuil 16/1
Utopie Des Bordes 20/1
Busty Brown 20/1
Rule The World 20/1
Defy Logic 25/1
Shutthefrontdoor 25/1
Sizing Gold 25/1
Utopie Des Bordes 25/1
Anonis 33/1
Easter Day 33/1
Shotgun Paddy 33/1
Recommendation:
Back Coneygree to win @ 16/1 (Stan James, Coral)
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