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| Triumph-ant - Our Conor looks the pick of this year's Triumph Hurdle contenders |
The race can often be a tricky one to solve given that many of the leading contenders don’t have much racing under their belt and often the winner doesn’t appear in people’s consciousness until only a few weeks prior to the race.
Already ahead of this year’s event the market has undergone many transformations and prior to the weekend just gone I didn’t particularly have a strong fancy for the race.
That all changed following the Spring Juvenile Hurdle at Leopardstown though as Dessie Hughes’s Our Conor put up a fantastic performance to easily smash some smart prospects and catapult himself to the head of the Irish charge for the race.
Dessie Hughes’s charge is unbeaten since going hurdling and travelled supremely well throughout the race last weekend, when asked for an effort on the turn he instantly put considerable daylight between himself and good horses like Blood Cotil, Diakali and Ruacana.
Prior to Saturday, although unbeaten it was hard to say that Our Conor has strong form in the bag having not really beaten anything, but he has now beaten the leading Irish contenders for this year’s Triumph and a decent yardstick for the domestic assault in Ruacana.
Word from the yard is that he is expected to improve if anything for drying ground so there’s a chance there’s more to come still, I see no reason to suggest that the form of Saturday’s race will be reversed come Cheltenham and for me Our Conor’s performance was arguably the Juvenile performance of the season to date either side of the Irish Sea.
I was really taken with how professionally he went about things and just how well he travelled through the race, he showed a turn of foot that looks ideal for the Triumph Hurdle and unlike Dessie Hughes’s perceived leading challenger for this race twelve months ago Minsk Our Conor looks all substance rather than all hype.
For the purposes of this piece I’m going to dismiss the three horses left trailing in Our Conor’s slipstream at Leopardstown, although prior to Saturday both Blood Cotil and Diakali had looked to be strong contenders for Willie Mullins.
The fact he ran both against each other at the weekend suggests to me that he didn’t know which was the better animal, and that was a slight concern going in to the race. Seeing how they both performed that concern proved to be legitimate, although Our Conor looks special so if he were to go on to win the Triumph as I think he now will, then the form of the Spring Juvenile might not turn out to look that bad.
Diakali is probably the stronger Mullins challenger now and the prices reflect that, although he will have to improve considerably not only to get nearer to Our Conor but to best many of the home team.
Leading the domestic brigade and disputing favouritism with Our Conor is Nicky Henderson’s Rolling Star.
Rolling Star made a successful UK debut on Cheltenham trials day backing up the upbeat vibes that had been coming out of the yard about him.
On that day he accounted for Paul Nicholls’ Irish Saint who had impressed at Kempton over Christmas. I’m not entirely convinced about the outcome of that race with the Nicholls runner having had to make the running and I certainly think that the price discrepancy between those two for the Triumph is way over the top. Whether that is a case of Rolling Star being too short or Irish Saint being too big at 25/1 remains to be seen however.
There’s no question that both are smart, and Rolling Star in particular has been the subject of very positive bulletins, he justified that on his debut but in terms of what we’ve seen thus far I’d rather be with Our Conor.
Paul Nicholls perhaps has a better chance of tasting Triumph glory again with Far West.
Unbeaten since switching to the UK and with two wins at Cheltenham he has been thoroughly convincing on every occasion. The commanding way in which he disposed of his rivals has been taking and though he’s yet to face anything close to the hustle and bustle of the Triumph he could be the home team’s leading contender.
I’d certainly rather be backing him at the prices than Rolling Star based on what we’ve seen on the track so far. Nicholls has a good record in the Triumph having won it with Celestial Halo and Zarkandar in recent years and Far West looks set to give Dicheat another good chance of landing Friday’s opener this year.
Given he arguably has the best juvenile form in the bag domestically thus far you could say 8/1 was value at this point.
One would think that had last year’s winning trainer John Quinn’s Kashmir Peak stood up on his most recent start he would have been victorious and thus a lot shorter than his current price of 16/1.
Kashmir Peak was unbeaten prior to that unseating at Musselburgh and Quinn obviously knows how to get one ready for this having saddled the winner last year. Previously with Ger Lyons on the flat Kashmir Peak has a great deal of experience under his belt which could count for a lot against many inexperienced opponents in the Triumph.
It does seem odd that the horse that won the race Kashmir Peak unseated in is so much bigger than him in the market at present though, especially given that Sametegal was only a length behind him at Doncaster back in December too.
Perhaps it’s the Paul Nicholls factor and the fact that he has more fancied runners that is keeping Sametegal at longer odds.
Tim Vaughan’s Swnymor is another that created a strong impression on his debut but has to leave a fall last time out behind him. Formerly with William Haggas on the flat Swnymor looked all set to land what looks like one of the stronger trials for the Triumph at Chepstow on Welsh National day only to come to grief at the last.
He’d won very nicely on his hurdling debut prior to that and caught many people’s eyes, given some of the horses he should have beat that day you’d have to think he’s priced up about right though now.
The Triumph is often a difficult race to assess until very close to the race and with one of the leading trials the Adonis still to come the market could undergo further fluctuations between now and the off.
With Paul Nicholls having so many leading hopes towards the top of the betting it’s still a little tricky to get a handle on just what will run and what won’t.
One horse that will be there barring any hiccups is Our Conor and although he might not be the best value in the race anymore he certainly looks the most likely winner to me and at present ranks as a very confident selection.
Triumph Hurdle 2013 – Selected Best Odds:
Our Conor 6/1
Rolling Star 6/1
Far West 8/1
Kashmir Peak 16/1
Swnymor 16/1
Diakali 20/1
L’Unique 20/1
Lac Fontana 20/1
Blood Cotil 25/1
Chris Pea Green 25/1
Hidden Justice 25/1
Irish Saint 25/1
Sametegal 25/1
Alexandre Six 33/1
Bordoni 33/1
Caid Du Berlais 33/1
Fatcatinthehat 33/1
Megalypos 33/1
Ruacana 33/1
Vasco Du Ronceray 33/1
Pistol 50/1
Recommendation:
Back Our Conor to win @ 6/1 (Ladbrokes)
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