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| Gold Run - Long Run can emulate great rival Kauto Star by regaining his Gold Cup crown |
At one point it looked like this year’s Gold Cup could be one of the most wide open in years, and although there are several leading contenders in with a chance of succeeding Synchronised as champion, the closer it’s got to the race the clearer it’s become that on the form book there are really only a handful of horses that can win.
So rather than be a highly competitive fare as was once expected the Gold Cup actually looks like one of the easier festival puzzles to solve this year.
Bobs Worth is a horse that I really like and if he was more of a price I’d probably be putting him up as the likely winner, but at 10/3 he doesn’t exactly scream value even though he looks for all the world like the most likely winner.
I do think the Nicky Henderson-trained Hennessy winner will take some beating, but I’ll be holding off backing him in the hope that someone tries to get him on the day and he drifts a little to a more backable price.
Of course if Nicky Henderson’s other big guns dominate earlier in the week as they are expected to there is the possibility that he will in fact shorten up for the Gold Cup but that’s the risk you run sometimes in trying to get a price.
In addition to his very impressive Hennessy win earlier this season – his only start of the year, following him missing the Argento after a setback – Bobs Worth has a fantastic record round Cheltenham.
His Cheltenham festival record is also second to none having won the Albert Bartlett in 2011 before bouncing right back to his best last year after a somewhat lack luster season to land the RSA.
He’s unbeaten in four visits to Prestbury Park and looks more than capable of handling the unique demands of a Gold Cup as a result; he travels, he stays and he looks pretty straight forward.
As a result of the aforementioned positives about Bobs Worth’s Gold Cup bid it’s very difficult to pick holes in him. One negative you might seize on about his chance would be his lack of a prep run since the Hennessy, it can’t be ideal coming in to the race off the back of a three and a half month lay-off, but he goes well fresh and often too much emphasis is put on these supposed stats that you can’t win a race without a prep run in a certain amount of time before the race.
All in all Bobs Worth looks a very worthy favourite for this year’s Gold Cup, but he’s not without his challengers.
Sir Des Champs has been towards the head of the market for the race ever since his dominant performance in the Jewson at last year’s festival.
He too has a fantastic record at Cheltenham having also won the Martin Pipe back in 2011, like Bobs Worth he’s quite lightly raced and seems to be coming good just at the right time.
He was unbeaten until bumping in to Flemenstar in the John Durkan this season and then jumped away any chance he had in the Lexus with several blunders on the way round before storming home to narrowly end up fourth.
On a line through Tidal Bay Bobs Worth holds Sir Des Champs, but the latter is largely expected to improve for the step-up in trip and if jumping well should be good for a few more lengths than he was beaten in the Lexus putting the two much closer.
In the absence of Flemenstar he’s Ireland’s big hope for the race and could go off considerably shorter if the subject of a big Irish gamble on the last day of the week.
Silviniaco Conti is Paul Nicholls’ new hope for the 3m chasing division following the retirements of Kauto Star and Denman, and he has made a flying start to living up to those lofty standards.
He’s won the Charlie Hall, the Betfair Chase and the Denman Chase this season, jumping with pinpoint accuracy on each occasion and accounting for many of the field he will face in the Gold Cup in the process.
His lack of Cheltenham form is somewhat of a worry and there is a slight concern he may not quite see out the grueling trip as well as Bobs Worth or Sir Des Champs but that said, the Denman was run on bottomless ground and he beat last year’s Gold Cup second The Giant Bolster going away over what probably felt like the Gold Cup trip and then some.
Silviniaco Conti still feels like he’s flying under the radar somewhat, which given his yard seems strange, but if he can jump with the fluency he has shown to date over his fences in the Gold Cup then he could really serve it up to the more hardened stayers.
If Silviniaco Conti is flying under the radar then 2011 winner Long Run is the forgotten horse of the race. It’s incredible to think the King George winner can be backed at a monster 7/1 but that’s the situation we find ourselves in.
Admittedly he doesn’t look to have the toe that some of his opponents have, but if the Gold Cup was to turn in to a real stamina-sapping slog, as is more than likely, he’s more primed for such a test than any of his opponents.
The second season chasers may have been dominating this season but Long Run is still young and showed in the King George that his will to win is still burning bright.
Amateur jockey Sam Waley-Cohen might have been given a lesson in big race riding by Ruby Walsh in the Betfair Chase but he showed in the King George when up against one of the best around Richard Johnson in a driving finish that he can mix it with the big boys.
Whether you think his association with Long Run is detrimental to the horse’s chances or not you know by now what you’re getting and have to say that the jockey is factored in to Long Run’s price.
The King George is arguably the strongest Gold Cup trial of the season and Long Run proved himself to still be a force in this division by battling back to regain his Kempton crown.
If the ground happened to come up soft or worse for the Gold Cup you’d be brave to suggest he wouldn’t have a leading chance of emulating his great rival of recent years Kauto Star by regaining his Gold Cup crown.
At the current prices for me he looks the pick of the leading four in the market, who between them have the race pretty much sewn up in my opinion.
Of the remainder, First Lieutenant would have to be a leading hope if taking his chance based on his form with Bobs Worth and Sir Des Champs this year; however it looks likely that he will now contest his owner’s race the Ryanair, for which I have already put him up at 12/1.
Prior to his fantastic comeback in the Argento I put up Imperial Commander as a lively each-way contender for the Gold Cup even at his now advanced years. He was 50/1 at the time and following that excellent return to action when narrowly touched off by Cape Tribulation he is now more than half that price.
If avoiding the dreaded ‘bounce’ factor you would have to say he has a good chance of getting involved in the finish but it is surely wishful thinking to dream of a fairytale win three years on from his most famous victory.
Bizarrely the horse that pipped Imperial Commander in the Argento giving weight to him Cape Tribulation is 33/1 which does look a tad on the large side all things considering.
That said he benefited from a trademark Denis O’Regan ride that day and although that race proved he can be competitive in a Grade 1 the Argento hasn’t got a great record as a Gold Cup trial and this year’s race ended up being a somewhat weak renewal.
I don’t think he should be so much bigger than Imperial Commander, but he will need to improve again considerably to trouble the likes of Bobs Worth.
Captain Chris just cannot be backed going left-handed again until he proves he has rid his jumping of the problems that plagued him on anti-clockwise tracks last season. You’re taking a huge leap of faith if you back him here without a trial on a left-handed track since his appalling jumping performance in last season’s Ryanair.
He does stay very well as proven in the King George, but if jumping like he has recently at Cheltenham the amount of ground that will cost him will surely prove insurmountable in a high class field such as this.
In spite of coming second last year I just don’t think The Giant Bolster is good enough no matter how much hype the trainer gives his charge and I would be surprised to see him better last year’s silver medal placing. That said if you take the form of last year’s race literally he probably shouldn’t be more than twice the price of Long Run.
Venetia Williams’s Katenko has progressed at an impressive rate of knots this season including winning a handicap at the course on trials day very nicely. He could be a dark horse going in to this but he would do well to better Venetia Williams’s best Gold Cup effort of third in my opinion as if Our Mick had stood up on trials day I’m not even convinced Katenko would have won and that’s just not good enough to make the frame in a Gold Cup.
Our Mick incidentally is my idea of the winner of the Festival Handicap on the first day of the festival and can be backed at 14/1 for that race, which I would advise doing.
Bog Warrior might be of interest if lining up but I’m hoping he goes to the World Hurdle having tipped him for that, China Rock has tried and failed before and I see no reason he would go any better this time around and Prince De Beauchene and Wyck Hill look like using this a Grand National prep if running so I can’t see either of them being fully wound up for this.
Finians Rainbow won’t stay 3m2½f in a million years, Champion Court too looks a doubtful stayer having folded very tamely in the King George after traveling well and the rest just don’t look good enough in a very strong-looking renewal.
The first four are quite far clear of the remainder in the betting and rightly so, but although the sophomore chasers have had largely their own way thus far there are enough doubts about the three main contenders for me to side with the horse that’s been there and done that.
Long Run has had his doubters throughout his career, myself being one of them, but he has consistently proven himself at the highest level and boasts a record of the highest class.
7/1 about a former winner that still has age on his side and is coming off a second King George win looks far too generous and although Bobs Worth looks a worthy favourite Long Run has to be the value call in this year’s Gold Cup.
Selected Best Odds:
Bobs Worth 10/3
Sir Des Champs 9/2
Silviniaco Conti 5/1
Long Run 7/1
First Lieutenant 16/1
Imperial Commander 20/1
The Giant Bolster 20/1
Captain Chris 25/1
Katenko 25/1
Cape Tribulation 33/1
Prince De Beauchene 50/1
China Rock 66/1
Bog Warrior 66/1
Champion Court 66/1
Jessies Dream 66/1
Quito De La Roque 66/1
Wyck Hill 66/1
Finians Rainbow 80/1
Quel Esprit 80/1
Monbeg Dude 100/1
Wayward Prince 100/1
Recommendation:
Back Long Run to win @ 7/1 (Paddy Power) [13/2 NRNB Betfred]
Already Advised:
Imperial Commander each-way @ 50/1 [NRFB]
Current Cheltenham Portfolio:
Supreme Novices’ – Dodging Bullets @ 14/1
Arkle – Overturn @ 7/1
Festival Handicap Chase - Our Mick @ 14/1
Champion Hurdle – Grandouet @ 7/1 [NRFB]
Mares Hurdle – Quevega @ 8/11
Neptune – Puffin Billy @ 9/1
RSA – Boston Bob @ 7/1
Queen Mother – Sprinter Sacre @ 1/2
Bumper – Clondaw Court @ 12/1 (e/w) and Pure Science @ 16/1 (e/w)
Jewson – Captain Conan @ 4/1 [NRFB]
Ryanair – First Lieutenant @ 12/1
World Hurdle – Bog Warrior @ 10/1 [NRFB] and Trustan Times @ 40/1 (e/w)
Triumph Hurdle - Our Conor @ 6/1
Albert Bartlett - Coneygree @ 16/1
Gold Cup – Long Run @ 7/1 and Imperial Commander @ 50/1 (e/w) [NRFB]
Previously:
Festival Focus - Supreme Novices' Hurdle
Festival Focus - The Arkle
Festival Focus - Champion Hurdle
Festival Focus - Mares Hurdle
Festival Focus - The Neptune
Festival Focus - RSA
Festival Focus - Queen Mother Champion Chase
Festival Focus - Champion Bumper
Festival Focus - Jewson Novices' Chase
Festival Focus - Ryanair Chase
Festival Focus - World Hurdle
Festival Focus - Triumph Hurdle
Festival Focus - Albert Bartlett
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