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| First Choice - First Lieutenant can land his owner's race |
The race offers championship class horses that aren’t speedy enough for the Champion Chase but don’t quite stay the grueling Gold Cup trip an intermediate distance to tackle.
The Ryanair’s success has clearly been the spur for the creation of a novice equivalent in the Jewson and has seen most notably Imperial Commander take the race in recent years.
Last year’s race was responsible for arguably the jumps ride of the season as Barry Geraghty steered Riverside Theatre home in front having looked like holding no chance for much of the race.
This year’s renewal, as seems to be a common theme with this year’s festival, is in danger of losing several of the leading protagonists in the betting at this point to other targets and for that reason looks somewhat of a minefield to try and get to the bottom of.
Holding an ante-post coupon for Flemenstar in the Gold Cup I’m hoping the Peter Casey-trained superstar does take up that engagement, and unless he dramatically doesn’t stay in the upcoming Irish Hennessy I fully expect him to be bound for the Gold Cup.
If he fails to stay in the Hennessy as others think will be the case, then the Ryanair would look a great opportunity for him to notch a festival win, with his other option being taking on Sprinter Sacre in the Champion Chase.
Obviously were that latter option to occur it would certainly add spice to what looks set to be a cake walk for Sprinter Sacre, but as good as Flemenstar is even he isn’t good enough to live with Nicky Henderson’s monster.
11/2 will look a steal if Flemenstar does end up in the Ryanair but given the major doubts about his participation in the race it’s not of interest to me at this point.
Another horse prominent in the betting that looks even less likely to line-up is a horse Flemenstar has twice finished in front of this season Sir Des Champs.
Sir Des Champs too looks Gold Cup-bound even though this is his owner’s race.
I’d be less confident of this horse not running here if Gigginstown and Michael O’Leary didn’t have a ready made substitute and potential winner of the race in-house in First Lieutenant.
Another horse that proves the old horses for courses adage and shows just how important festival form can be, First Lieutenant has won the Neptune and finished second to the current Gold Cup favourite in the RSA at the last two festivals.
He was also third in this year’s Hennessy and second in the Lexus finishing just in front of Flemenstar and Sir Des Champs.
Given he’s as low as 7s with some firms, Stan James’s 12/1 looks a real stand-out price about a horse who will have no trouble staying if the ground was on the softer side and this turned in to more of a stamina test than we’ve become accustomed to, and has that all important course and festival form already in the bag.
Of course there is a risk that Gigginstown will want to be double-handed for the Gold Cup and First Lieutenant will run there instead. With Sir Des Champs a leading Gold Cup hope though and given that this is the owners’ race I can see Gigginstown wanting to win their own race and opting to send First Lieutenant down this route instead.
If you still aren’t convinced, Bet Victor’s Non-Runner, Free Bet concession still offers you a pretty tasty 10/1 on First Lieutenant for the Ryanair.
First Lieutenant last won a race in November 2011 which is usually a big negative for me but he has been placed in four Grade 1s since then and seems to reserve his best, as many of the Presenting offspring do, for Cheltenham.
With doubts surrounding so many of the other purported leading contenders for the race he looks to have a great chance of notching another festival win.
Captain Chris actually ran well in the race twelve months ago considering how erratically he jumped and on the strength of his narrow King George defeat it’d be folly to dismiss him.
Although he won an Arkle though he subsequently just doesn’t seem to have been able to go left-handed and until I see evidence to the contrary I couldn’t consider him unless he drifted out to a decent each-way price in the hope that in spite of his jumping he could stay on past beaten horses for a place.
On his recent Cheltenham form though Captain Chris, though clearly a talented animal, won’t be able to add a Ryanair to his Arkle.
Stable mate Menorah, though seeming to have put many of his jumping problems behind, still leaves lingering doubts in mind about his jumping ability.
If putting in a clear round he could be dangerous, having previously run well over hurdles round Cheltenham, including a Supreme win back in 2010.
Again it would be foolish to rule him out completely, but if his jumping is put under pressure I’d need to be confident his old problems were truly gone and I’m just not convinced on that count just yet.
Silviniaco Conti looks to be the Nicholls’ team’s main Gold Cup hope now so also looks highly unlikely to run here, Bog Warrior looks to hold an excellent chance in the World Hurdle, Unioniste will surely be RSA-bound and although I love Grands Crus until I see something like the old spark from him I can’t back him again after he’s disappointed twice round Cheltenham this season already.
If the real Grands Crus turned up, given the way he ran so well for so long in the King George, he’d be a major player but with his current well-being questionable there’s no guarantee at this stage that he even makes it to Cheltenham this year.
Though Champion Court has showed himself to be a very useful horse I personally don’t think he’s good enough to beat some of his likely festival opponents here, even though he was a good second to Sir Des Champs in last season’s Jewson.
Those same sentiments apply to Somersby as well for me and I’m also not really convinced this is his trip as his seventh in last year’s arguably less hot renewal would seem to suggest, couple that with the fact he’s winless at Prestbury Park and he’s not for me.
With For Non Stop and Rubi Light looking to have place claims at best based on recent form and patchy Cheltenham records, that leaves Cue Card, Sizing Europe, Finians Rainbow and last year’s winner Riverside Theatre as the main challengers.
The last named needs to put a truly disappointing King George run behind him but on his day is more than capable of making it back to back wins in the Ryanair.
There’s still part of me though that can’t shake the fact that if it wasn’t for Barry Geraghty he wouldn’t have managed to get up in last year’s race, and with the Henderson yard’s stable jockey not guaranteed to ride Riverside Theatre again this year with Finians Rainbow also a contender I’m struggling to bring myself to consider him a viable threat.
We know he goes well fresh and although he looked to struggle when beaten in the Arkle in 2010 his win here last year shows he will go at Cheltenham; soft ground wouldn’t be a problem on the book but he looked to hate it at Kempton and I need to see something like a return to form before I can back him again.
Sizing Europe’s target is up-in-the-air and I personally think connections would be mad to send him here as opposed to the Champion Chase, although by taking the latter route he would undoubtedly meet defeat at the hands of Sprinter Sacre.
They would probably argue they’d rather win a race at Cheltenham than finish second in a more prestigious one but the Champion Chase needs Sizing Europe, the Ryanair does not.
There are enough variables in national hunt racing that taking the chance in the Champion Chase could yield a surprise – who’s to say that Sprinter Sacre won’t get brought down by a faller leaving the race at the former champ’s mercy? It’s unlikely, but not impossible.
I’m now becoming convinced though that Sizing Europe will line-up here instead of where he should, and if he does he’s a big player. He boasts a fantastic Cheltenham record and has been as good as ever notching up a four-timer this season.
He blatantly doesn’t stay three miles but looks to be as effective at two and a half as he does at his optimum of two miles. If he lines up he has to go close but with more doubts surrounding his participation than First Lieutenant in my eyes, I’m siding with the Gigginstown runner.
The other two dangers to the selection both need to leave disappointing runs last time out behind them, but both are more than capable of doing so.
The current Champion chaser Finians Rainbow hasn’t been seen all winter since flopping on his comeback at Ascot over two and a half miles in the mud. He doesn’t act on the soft ground and a lack of a prep run thus far is a concern to me.
On better ground he would be a major player on the strength of his Melling Chase win at the National meeting last season, but with no guarantee of good ground it’s a risk to get on a horse that looks to be ground dependent at this stage.
His Champion Chase win of last season may have been shrouded in controversy, but there’s no denying that on his day Finians Rainbow is a class act and if we got good quick ground I could see him winning this, but given the winter we’ve had and with no signs of any relenting from the weather it looks unlikely we’re going to see the real Finians Rainbow for a while yet and I have my suspicions he may be saved to defend his Aintree title.
Of the likeliest winners that just leaves Cue Card to discuss really and he looks to have the right profile for the race and is many people’s idea of the winner.
Cue Card has solid form round Cheltenham having jumped on to everyone’s radar when an impressive 40/1 winner of the Bumper back in 2010. He followed that up with good runs at the Open meeting and in the International before being beaten in to fourth in that season’s Supreme when a warm favourite.
Over fences thus far he’s been good if not great, and chased Sprinter Sacre home in last year’s Arkle. He returned this season with a romp in the Haldon Gold Cup before not looking to get home when well-fancied in the King George.
The intermediate distance looks to be this horse’s trip and Cue Card is undoubtedly talented, but he’s yet to truly stick his head in front in the biggest races, save for that Bumper win, and he looks short all things considered at a best price of 6/1.
On his side is the fact this looks to be the race he will definitely go for, which is a peace of mind you don’t have with so many of the others.
However I’m willing to take a chance that First Lieutenant, as the perceived Gigginstown second string in the Gold Cup, will be rerouted here to try and land his owner’s race, and boasting form that ties in closely with three of the leading Gold Cup contenders and a likely World Hurdle favourite, I’m half hoping stamina is tested in this year’s Ryanair and this horse can outstay them all up the hill he’s thundered up on more than one occasion previously.
Ryanair Chase – Selected Best Odds:
Flemenstar 11/2
Cue Card 6/1
Captain Chris 8/1
Finians Rainbow 9/1
Sir Des Champs 9/1
Champion Court 10/1
Sizing Europe 10/1
Riverside Theatre 12/1
First Lieutenant 12/1
Menorah 12/1
Silviniaco Conti 16/1
China Rock 20/1
Grands Crus 20/1
For Non Stop 22/1
Somersby 25/1
Salut Flo 25/1
Unioniste 25/1
Rubi Light 28/1
Albertas Run 33/1
Bog Warrior 33/1
Recommendation:
Back First Lieutenant to win @ 12/1 (Stan James) [10/1 NRFB Bet Victor]
Previously:
Festival Focus - Supreme Novices' Hurdle
Festival Focus - The Arkle
Festival Focus - Champion Hurdle
Festival Focus - Mares Hurdle
Festival Focus - The Neptune
Festival Focus - RSA
Festival Focus - Queen Mother Champion Chase
Festival Focus - Champion Bumper
Festival Focus - Jewson Novices' Chase
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