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| Ultimate Warrior - Bog Warrior can continue his redemption in the World Hurdle |
However although we won’t get to see the great staying hurdler attempt a remarkable fifth straight win in the race, his absence ensures the contest is more open than it’s been in years and looks a fascinating renewal.
Since Big Buck’s’ defection from the race the market has been in disarray with at one point or another several horses who look nailed on to run elsewhere during the week topping the betting.
Things have got a little more sensible in recent weeks however, even though Quevega still occupies a spot towards the head of the market in spite of it all but having been confirmed she’ll go for another Mares Hurdle rather than go for the World Hurdle.
Just to quickly get several others prominent in the betting that simply won’t run out of the way too, Grands Crus looks unlikely to revert to hurdles at this stage in spite of his recent poor form over fences. Having had a Big Buck’s-esque season over fences though were he to turn up here it could be ominous and if back to his best he’d be a key player, that all looks unlikely to be the case at present though.
Cape Tribulation will now almost certainly go for the Gold Cup following his Argento win while Dynaste will be in a novice chase event, most likely the RSA and Riverside Theatre looks set to defend his Ryanair crown.
With those that won’t run out of the way it’s time to focus on those that will and current favourite Oscar Whisky, a horse that polarizes opinion, seems the right starting point.
Many believe that this horse should be contesting the Champion Hurdle rather the three mile alternative after he looked to fail to stay the trip when well beaten as Big Buck’s’ perceived main threat last year.
Oscar Whisky’s curse is the lack of a 2m4f championship hurdle race – a Ryanair hurdle if you will – as over that somewhat specialist distance he is different class.
He has a 50% strike rate at Cheltenham but those defeats have all come in Graded races – including three festival defeats. Other than those losses and his fall in the Ascot Hurdle behind Overturn last season he is unbeaten and remains one of the classiest hurdlers around.
His second to Reve De Sivola in the Cleeve Hurdle on trials day proved once and for all that he does stay 3m even if it’s not his optimum distance, and given the bog-like ground that day if we were to get better ground come the festival he has to be considered one of, if not THE, horse to beat in this year’s World Hurdle.
5/1 looks a fair enough price all things considered and there could be more value to bed had in looking elsewhere and hoping that a more thorough stayer can get the better of a horse that if Nicky Henderson didn’t already have such a strong Champion Hurdle hand would surely be running there instead.
Oscar Whisky’s Cleeve conquer Reve De Sivola has enjoyed a resurgence this winter mainly due to the consistent quagmires we’ve encountered throughout the last few months. He was destroyed by Big Buck’s in the Long Distance Hurdle in early December though, which either shows how much he has improved for the heavy ground or just how much in hand Big Buck’s has on this division.
My fear with Reve De Sivola, aside from his rather poor Cheltenham record (his Cleeve win aside) is that when the ground improves, which it surely must at least start to soon whether he will be quite as effective as he has run across all ground and seems to relish a slog.
In some ways he has a profile similar to Big Buck’s in that a disappointing chase career was aborted in favour of a return to hurdles bringing the ability clearly always there to the fore. Unlike Big Buck’s though Reve De Sivola doesn’t appeal as a solid bet for the World Hurdle in my eyes.
For a very brief moment it looked like Ireland could crash the Big Buck’s party last year as the now retired Voler La Vedette cruised in to contention and although she couldn’t bring the World Hurdle back across the Irish Sea the Irish have two leading contenders this time around in Bog Warrior and Monksland.
With Solwhit now only 50/50 to make Cheltenham according to trainer Charles Byrnes and it being unlikely that Champions’ Day winner Rite Of Passage will take his chance ahead of a tilt at regaining the Ascot Gold Cup it looks like Ireland’s hopes will lie with these two classy animals.
Noel Meade’s lightly-raced 6-year-old Monksland has only been beaten twice in seven starts under rules, including a decent enough third in last year’s Neptune behind Simonsig.
Regular partner Paul Carberry will no doubt be finessing Monksland home and having won the Grade 2 Christmas Hurdle at Leopardstown over the festive period he looks to have a great chance in an open renewal of the World Hurdle.
My slight concern with him is his lack of experience – albeit he has course and festival form – and whether or not he is quite battle-hardened enough to slog it out up the hill over three unrelenting miles.
Bog Warrior on the other hand, although relatively lightly raced for a nine-year-old, has a dearth of experience and is on somewhat of a recovery mission after a chase career that began with so much promise – a 7 ½ length smashing of Flemenstar no less – went seriously off the rails.
Tony Martin has smartly campaigned his star this season though, reverting him to smaller obstacles after falling at Down Royal on his seasonal reappearance.
He sluiced up under top weight in a handicap hurdle at Fairyhouse exploiting his more lenient mark over timber, before dishing out beatings to Solwhit and Zaidpour (albeit getting weight from the latter) on his last two starts.
He’s a Grade 1-winning chaser and although with an animal this talented surely the end game is a chase career, the form he’s been in over hurdles this year must see him take his chance at landing one of the festival’s showpiece races.
Age isn’t quite on his side but Bog Warrior can resume a championship chase career next season as a 9/10-year-old having hopefully won the ultimate staying hurdles prize.
A big area of concern here is that all this horse’s form is on bad ground and although we often see Irish horses come over and improve further for better ground they aren’t always accustomed to domestically, you’re taking a chance if the ground improves.
Having a portfolio at present though that mainly focuses on good ground horses and hinging on a vast improvement in recent weather it might be sensible to balance that out with a few horses more inclined to perform if it stays soft.
With that in mind and at the prices Bog Warrior appeals more than Reve De Sivola in spite of that one’s recent course win, as although quirky, Bog Warrior has shown more than once that when on song he is a very talented horse and racing on the front end of things I can see him taking some stopping up that hill.
If running and over his recent ailments Tidal Bay looks overpriced at 9/1 after his Hennessy and Lexus exploits this season.
Having never really lived up to expectations following his 2008 Arkle win until the transfer to Paul Nicholls most of Tidal Bay’s best performances had come over hurdles.
Finessed back to form by the champion trainer though, Tidal Bay has recently finally started to live up to those lofty early expectations, landing the Lexus over Christmas in a thriller having run very well under top weight to finish just behind Gold Cup favourite Bobs Worth in the Hennessy.
Ruby Walsh has reportedly suggested the World Hurdle rather than the Gold Cup would be the ideal race for Tidal Bay and with the Nicholls team having Silviniaco Conti as their perceived main hope in that race it would come as no real surprise to see Tidal Bay try and win another World Hurdle for his owners after Inglis Drever enjoyed such a fantastic record in the race for them.
He’ll be coming fast and late no doubt and there’s just a suspicion with me that he might find a few of the younger legs a bit difficult to peg back up the hill if leaving it as late as we’ve been accustomed to for making his move.
You’ve got to respect him whatever happens and if he turns up, given the yard’s domination of the race in recent years 9/1 could look huge on the day.
Donald McCain’s Peddlers Cross is another horse with a great Cheltenham Festival record and too is on a redemption crusade having disappointed terribly over fences last season.
He’s a Neptune winner and a Champion Hurdle runner-up and although the ground has kept him off the track most of this season to date, he showed his well-being recently in a jumpers bumper at Kempton when travelling like the best horse in the race for a long way before just tiring in the straight and finishing second to the useful Sam Winner.
Although I’m a big fan of this horse and have been since his Neptune win, stamina would be a concern with him for me as he’s never gone beyond 2m5f and has in the past looked more of a speed horse than a stayer, 12/1 looks short at present all things considered.
Of the remainder Get Me Out Of Here is another that loves the Cheltenham Festival, he was second in the Supreme a few years back and then lost the County Hurdle by a whisker the following year. A second in last year’s Coral Cup followed those two runner-up efforts and although this is infinitely tougher it’d be no surprise to see him run well again, however on the form book you’d have to think its place claims at best.
Smad Place was third last year but has been thrashed by Tidal Bay and Reve De Sivola in his two starts this season, he’s never won at Cheltenham and looks up against it even on the best of his form this year even in the absence of Big Buck’s.
Willie Mullins could also send Thousand Stars, So Young and Zaidpour over, though I’d be surprised if all three ran.
The first-named was fourth last year and won the County Hurdle in 2010, Thousand Stars also boasts one of the most consistent records you’ll find in National Hunt racing but sadly always seems to find one or two too good.
He does have winning form in France at this trip though so stamina should be no issue and 25/1 could be a cracking each-way price, especially if we get a big field as looks likely in a wide open renewal.
So Young was somewhat of a hype horse in his novice season but failed to justify a monster gamble in the 2011 Neptune, his form’s been in and out since then and he could only manage ninth in this last year, he’s been beaten by Monksland, Solwhit and Zaidpour already this season and it would be a surprise to see any of that form turned around here let alone him beat some of the leading domestic challengers.
Zaidpour was at one point a leading hope for this year’s World Hurdle but he’s been comfortably beaten twice this season at the trip and has been soundly beaten on both his visits to the Cheltenham Festival previously.
He’s another who could run well at a price but just doesn’t have the form in the bag to suggest he has a chance of taking this for Ireland.
One last horse to touch on is one I backed ante-post prior to the Long Walk, but following his disappointing run in that race his price has drifted out massively, which does look a bit of an overreaction to be honest.
Trustan Times can now be backed at 40/1 which looks huge when you consider he was only a fraction of that prior to Ascot and struggling in the mud there.
Before that he’d won two competitive handicap hurdles off top weight, including the Haydock Fixed Brush Hurdle that Grands Crus and Dynaste won on their way to the World Hurdle in the last couple of years.
He has to prove he can do it at the highest level still but I don’t think that Long Walk run was his true self and I can see him going far better here than his odds suggest. Having already backed him myself at much shorter I can’t not put him up now at a stand-out each-way price of 40/1.
My main hope for the race though now lies with Bog Warrior and I’m really hoping we don’t see him sent off as the sacrificial lamb for Sir Des Champs to follow in Saturday’s Irish Hennessy, a race at the time of writing he is still entered for.
The vibes are that he won’t run and if he doesn’t that can only bode well for a tilt at this race, if he does run and runs well then the 66/1 on offer for the Gold Cup might soon like quite short instead.
Bog Warrior is without doubt a potential superstar and though the Gold Cup still looms large as an option, given his prep this season and the lack of a Gigginstown star to take a crack at an open renewal of the World Hurdle though, I’m hoping Tony Martin’s charge stays over hurdles and leads his opponents a merry dance round Prestbury Park in five weeks time.
World Hurdle 2013 – Selected Best Odds:
Oscar Whisky 5/1
Reve De Sivola 11/2
Monksland 7/1
Tidal Bay 9/1
Bog Warrior 10/1
Quevega 10/1
Peddlers Cross 12/1
Solwhit 14/1
Rite Of Passage 16/1
Get Me Out Of Here 20/1
Grands Crus 20/1
Smad Place 20/1
Cape Tribulation 25/1
Dynaste 25/1
Thousand Stars 25/1
Wonderful Charm 25/1
Riverside Theatre 33/1
So Young 33/1
Zaidpour 33/1
Trustan Times 40/1
Recommendation:
Back Bog Warrior to win @ 10/1 (Bet Victor) [NRFB]
Back Trustan Times each-way @ 40/1 (Sportingbet)
Current Cheltenham Portfolio:
Supreme Novices’ – Dodging Bullets @ 14/1
Arkle – Overturn @ 7/1
Champion Hurdle – Grandouet @ 7/1 [NRFB]
Mares Hurdle – Quevega @ 8/11
Neptune – Puffin Billy @ 9/1
RSA – Boston Bob @ 7/1
Queen Mother – Sprinter Sacre @ 1/2
Bumper – Clondaw Court @ 12/1 (e/w) and Pure Science @ 16/1 (e/w)
Jewson – Captain Conan @ 4/1 [NRFB]
Ryanair – First Lieutenant @ 12/1
World Hurdle – Bog Warrior @ 10/1 [NRFB] and Trustan Times @ 40/1 (e/w)
Gold Cup – Imperial Commander @ 50/1 (e/w) [NRFB]
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