Festival Focus - Arkle Trophy 2015

Smash and Grab - Smashing looks the each way call in the Arkle.

Conventional wisdom since Un De Sceaux’s romp in the Irish equivalent of this race has been that if he jumps round he wins.

Having backed Willie Mullins’ flying machine back at the start of the season it’s left me struggling with what to suggest for this race given that in an ideal world I’d be tipping Un De Sceaux, only at a much bigger price than he currently is.

Much like with Faugheen in the Champion Hurdle though I can’t bring myself to tip an odds on shot and until very recently I was struggling for an each-way alternative to recommend to the jolly.

However that has changed with the announcement that one of Un De Sceaux’s previous victims is perhaps unexpectedly now being targeted here for another crack at his old rival.

I’ll get to that in a minute though, first the favourite.

Un De Sceaux began his chasing career with a shock fall when sent off at 1/8 at Thurles, he was streaking clear that day as is his way and would almost certainly have won but for that novicey fall where he just failed to get the landing gear down in time.

Supreme Novices' Hurdle Preview - Festival Focus

Liquid Dreams - The Liquidator has already won at Cheltenham and looks a big price for the Supreme

The Cheltenham Festival curtain-raiser is always a highlight of the week, from the ‘roar’ that greets the dropping of the tape to the often surprising results the race can throw up, suffice to say the opener is never dull.

Prior to Champagne Fever last year the previous four years had all seen winners priced in double figures and even the mighty Willie Mullins managed to win it with a 40/1 shot in 2007.

In fact there hasn’t been a winning favourite in the race since Brave Inca emerged victorious in 2004. The list of horses beaten in this race reads like a who’s who of National Hunt racing over the last few seasons as well: Sprinter Sacre, Cue Card, Binocular, Oscar Whisky, Somersby, even dual Royal Ascot winner Simenon trailed in last in 2012.

That all doesn’t bode particularly well for current favourite Irving, but the way in which he won the Dovecote last weekend suggests that he is more than up to the challenge of ending the losing streak of favourites in this race.

He’s unbeaten over hurdles and represents a trainer that has won this race before having taken it with Al Ferof in 2011. Paul Nicholls has been careful with this potential superstar and though I, like many people, think he would have won the Betfair Hurdle had he run, if he can land the Supreme his trainer’s caution will be more than justified.

Neptune Preview - Festival Focus

Elementary - Red Sherlock is fancied to land the Neptune

The Neptune has produced some great winners over the years – Istabraq, Hardy Eustace and in recent years First Lieutenant, Peddlers Cross, Simonsig and The New One.

This year’s race looks set to unearth yet another superstar as a talented list of entries remain in the novice contest but with a hot ante-post favourite from Willie Mullins, the horse that appeals to me as the most likely winner still sits at a decent price in spite of his recent contraction.

My original ante-post pick Clondaw Court is not dead in the water yet and I do hope he runs here but with the favourite Faugheen in the same ownership it looks unlikely, and if a Cheltenham run is in Clondaw Court’s future it is more than likely going to be in the Albert Bartlett.

Therefore the unbeaten Red Sherlock is now my selection for the race as things stand, his recent battling win at Cheltenham in which he and Rathvinden (not far off being one of Mullins’ best novice hurdlers) pulled well clear of a decent field cementing that sentiment.