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| Smash and Grab - Smashing looks the each way call in the Arkle. |
Having backed Willie Mullins’ flying machine back at the start of the season it’s left me struggling with what to suggest for this race given that in an ideal world I’d be tipping Un De Sceaux, only at a much bigger price than he currently is.
Much like with Faugheen in the Champion Hurdle though I can’t bring myself to tip an odds on shot and until very recently I was struggling for an each-way alternative to recommend to the jolly.
However that has changed with the announcement that one of Un De Sceaux’s previous victims is perhaps unexpectedly now being targeted here for another crack at his old rival.
I’ll get to that in a minute though, first the favourite.
Un De Sceaux began his chasing career with a shock fall when sent off at 1/8 at Thurles, he was streaking clear that day as is his way and would almost certainly have won but for that novicey fall where he just failed to get the landing gear down in time.
He soon put things right with a dominant display at Fairyhouse beating the very useful Smashing (more on him in a minute) by 12l before that devastating display in the Irish Arkle in which he beat genuine Grade 1 performers Clarcam and Gilgamboa with consummate ease.
I’m of the opinion like many that his greatest enemy in the Arkle is himself and if he can stay on his feet nothing will get near him.
Of course there are straws to clutch at for those trying to get him beat but he’s looked something out of the very top drawer in his short career to date and I think he can be a dominant force at the top level for some time to come.
So what chases him home or takes advantage if he does make a race ending blunder? That’s been the burning question now for over a month and the realistic contenders are looking thin on the ground really.
Vibrato Valtat is the obvious one and Paul Nicholls’ charge has dispelled all the negative labels that had been thrown at him with a winter of increasingly impressive performances. He definitely looks a likely contender for the place money but with that not exactly being an original thought his price doesn’t really offer any each-way value now.
In spite of Barry Geraghty’s constant positive bulletins about Josses Hill I just can’t have it and though saying this will probably see him hose up I think he’ll struggle to get round.
He’s not looked fluent over his fences and has twice been beaten at odds on this season. He’s clearly talented and as such makes some appeal from an each-way perspective, especially given how upbeat both trainer and jockey remain but he’s just not convinced at all yet over fences and as such looks a risky proposition for a race that’s likely to be run at such a frenetic pace.
Clarcam has already been well beaten by Un De Sceaux but again makes plenty of appeal each-way given he’d previously been a wide margin winner over my JLT pick Vautour at Christmas.
Obviously Vautour had his excuses that day having almost knocked himself out but Clarcam still won by a distance and though well beaten by Un De Sceaux, he was far from disgraced having tried in vain to mix it with him before Un De Sceaux burned him off in a matter of strides.
It’s difficult to envisage circumstances in which he’ll turn that form around barring a catastrophic error from the favourite but it’s not hard to see his each-way appeal given he’s already a Grade 1 winner over fences.
Off a far from typical campaign it’s hard to see Sgt Reckless being able to trouble the leading contenders and though he’s a talented animal, off one chase start he looks priced up based on the fact he’s been pricewised earlier in the season over anything else.
The one I like is the aforementioned Smashing, given jockey Johnny Burke has reportedly confirmed he runs here rather than the JLT where I think many thought he would run.
With NRNB now available on the Arkle though even if these reports turn out to be false there’s no risk and it’s almost a certainty he’ll be shorter on the day if he lines up given his form ties in with a couple of the festival’s supposed bankers as people try to find an each-way alternative to the short-priced favourite.
Well fancied for all the valuable handicap hurdles last season and consistently running well, other than a poor effort at Punchestown at the end of the season, Smashing has made a good start to his chasing career in spite of only recording one win to date.
He finished third to Don Poli on his first start (four miler fancy Wounded Warrior second) before a thumping from Un De Sceaux which saw Smashing also pull 30l away from his nearest pursuer, which probably didn’t quite get the attention it normally would have given the winner’s eye-catching effort.
He was an easy winner last time out cruising to a 33l victory at Gowran, admittedly not beating much in the process, but he got closer to Un De Sceaux than either pursuer in the Irish Arkle did and Clarcam is practically half the price for this.
Both Don Poli and Wounded Warrior have both franked the form of his first chase start since and go to the festival with strong chances depending on how the Gigginstown pack is shuffled.
Though it was expected he’d go for the JLT as so many horses ducking Un De Sceaux are doing, he’s proven that he has the speed for two miles by annihilating all but the odds on favourite in that previous clash with the Mullins horse.
The fact he gets further could help coming up the hill and his previous Cheltenham festival appearance can only have been a beneficial experience.
There’s no reason to think he can reverse the form with Un De Sceaux but there’s every reason to think he can run in to a place given how strong his from looks and how questionable the remainder of the top of the market looks after the first two in the betting.
If there’s one thing his trainer knows its two mile chasers and I think he looks the value each-way call in a race likely to be very thin on legitimate contenders.
Recommendation:
Smashing 0.5pt each-way @ 25/1 (Betfair Sportsbook) [NRNB]
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