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| Conan The Destroyer - Captain Conan looks a cut above his potential Jewson rivals |
The Jewson might still be in its infancy as a Cheltenham Festival race but with Sir Des Champs taking the race in impressive fashion last year it has already established itself as a breeding ground for future stars.
Much like the Ryanair did for the seasoned chasers the Jewson offers novice chasers an interim distance between the rapid 2 miles of the Arkle and the attritional 3 miles of the RSA.
Ireland have been responsible for both winners of this race thus far with Noble Prince taking the inaugural running in 2011 and Sir Des Champs following up for the raiders from across the Irish Sea twelve months ago.
Although there will once again no doubt be a strong Irish challenge this year it is the home team that look to have the strongest hand in the race courtesy of the Nicky Henderson trained Captain Conan.
Captain Conan has already established himself as a leading novice chaser and some very shrewd judges have suggested he could be the biggest threat to stable companion Simonsig were he to be pitched in to the Arkle.
It is looking, as things stand, though that the French import’s festival target will be the middle distance novice chase so as to keep the two Henderson inmates apart.
Captain Conan’s trial for this race looks set to be Saturday’s Scilly Isles Novice Chase at Sandown, a track Captain Conan has already notched a victory at this season when slamming Hinterland in emphatic style on Tingle Creek day.
Providing he stays on Saturday which is somewhat of an unknown at this point then he looks nailed on to run in the Jewson, the same cannot be said about most of the other horses at the head of the betting though.
With the exception of the favourite, only one other horse from the first six in the betting looks destined to actually line-up in this race. Of course plans can quickly change when we are still a month and a half away from the festival and although you could argue Captain Conan isn’t a certain starter in the Jewson he looks more likely to take on the interim distance than most based on what we know.
Dynaste will surely be RSA bound as will Unioniste, and Fago and Arvika Ligeonniere both look like taking in the Arkle. Even going further down the betting Boston Bob too looks RSA bound and Oscars Well looks more likely to tackle the Arkle, which really doesn’t leave much left in there to take on the favourite.
You take those horses out and Captain Conan suddenly looks more like he should be a hell of a lot shorter. Of course there’s a chance that one, two or even three of the aforementioned horses could be re-routed to this race but even if they were to take on the Henderson horse I still think 4/1 looks value.
I initially wrote off Captain Conan after his Tolworth win last year given that he would never have beat Colour Squadron that day had the latter named not hung away any chance he had, and although he somewhat disappointed following that UK debut failing to win another hurdles race (albeit all at Grade level) he has looked a machine over the larger obstacles thus far.
He got the better of the useful Sire De Grugy at Cheltenham during the Open Meeting back in November, with that horse having come out and franked the form since and then he gave weight to Hinterland in the Henry VIII at Sandown to land his first Grade 1 over fences.
The Henderson team clearly think a lot of him and he, even as a hurdler, looked a ready made chaser. With the race likely to somewhat fall apart once the actual line-ups are confirmed and the prospect of him winning very nicely at the weekend I don’t think his price will be around long and he looks a very good bet at this point for the Jewson.
Aupcharlie is the only other horse towards the top of the market that I can actually see lining up against Captain Conan for the Jewson and he will more than likely be his biggest challenger if that happens to be the case, assuming the rest don’t turn up as expected.
The Willie Mullins-trained horse has stats on his side and has looked smart in his chase runs to date even though narrowly beaten in his last two races.
Those two runs came over 3m though and although you couldn’t say he flat out didn’t stay last time out he certainly gave the impression that he’d be seen to greater effect over shorter.
That said I simply don’t think he’s as good as Captain Conan, and providing the selection shows himself to be as dominant over further on Saturday I’d be confident he’d have Aupcharlie’s number at the festival.
If the ground was heavy that could change things as you’ll need to stay every bit of 2m4f and then some to get up the hill in a bog, which we know Aupcharlie does, but as I’m hoping for – and expecting – better ground come March I’m praying that won’t be the case.
Tap Night holds a hurdles victory over Captain Conan and too is slated to run at the weekend so may be shorter once the dust settles on the weekend’s events but with only one chase start to his name thus far he’s not on my radar as a legitimate threat just yet.
Tom George’s Module has been nibbled at in the betting in recent days but like Captain Conan still needs to prove he can stay the trip having only raced up to 2 ¼ miles to date.
Best of the rest from those not yet mentioned could prove to be Tom Taafe’s Argocat who has proven himself to be a bit of a specialist over the interim trip having notched two victories in Ireland over 2m3f and a bit last year.
His latest Grade 2 victory was under somewhat of a cloud though with odds on favourite Mikael D’Haguenet falling three out when still well in contention, though he was impressive nonetheless. Is he good enough to beat Captain Conan though? I would say not.
The potential runners likely to be non-runners I touched on earlier on have all been covered more or less in either my Arkle or RSA pieces previously, but needless to say if any of them were to go for the Jewson Captain Conan’s task would increase in difficulty exponentially.
However given that none of them look likely to be here come the off, Captain Conan looks head and shoulders above his probable opposition and if he wins, and wins well, on Saturday the 4/1 currently on offer with the Non-Runner, Free Bet concession will look to have been an absolute steal.
Jewson Novices’ Chase – Selected Best Odds:
Captain Conan 4/1
Dynaste 7/1
Aupcharlie 8/1
Fago 12/1
Arvika Ligeonniere 14/1
Unioniste 16/1
Argocat 20/1
Boston Bob 20/1
Module 20/1
Oscars Well 20/1
Tap Night 20/1
Benefficient 25/1
Hadrian’s Approach 25/1
Lyreen Legend 25/1
Twinlight 25/1
Broadbackbob 33/1
Cantlow 33/1
Desert Cry 33/1
Goulanes 33/1
Recommendation:
Back Captain Conan to win @ 4/1 (Bet Victor) [NRFB]
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