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| Back The Jolly - Jollyallan looks a good bet in the opener. |
Vautour went some way to making amends for several beaten favourites over the last few years when running away with this race twelve months ago and his stable mate Douvan will attempt to do so again twelve months on for the same connections.
However with the market looking well and truly at sea for the race that is always accompanied by the famous ‘Cheltenham roar’ with the exception of the top two in the betting there is definitely some value to be had elsewhere in the market.
Following the sad loss of Allez Colombieres, Douvan has established himself as the leading contender of the platoon Willie Mullins could run here. He’s won both starts in emphatic style including the Grade 2 Moscow Flyer on his most recent start.
He’s done all that’s been asked of him and done so in a manner that suggests there’s more to come when he is finally properly tested, as he should be at Cheltenham.
Whether he’d be quite so short were he to hail from different connections though remains to be seen and I’d be pretty confident that if you do think he’s head and shoulders over the rest that you’ll get at least his current best price of 9/4 on the morning of the race, so from an ante-post perspective at that price he makes little appeal.
Nicky Henderson’s L’Ami Serge sits next in the market and is probably worth his position there having won the Grade 1 Tolworth last time out.
He’s been impressive throughout the winter on bad ground and should he find improvement for better ground then he could be a major player. Perhaps irrationally though there’s something about him that just hasn’t done it for me so far and again at a short enough price I’d be keen to take him on.
The horse that I think represents the best value in the race at present therefore is Jollyallan.
He may have relinquished his unbeaten record over obstacles at the weekend when beaten in a Listed hurdle by the more experienced and seasoned Garde Le Victoire but if anything his reputation was only enhanced by this performance.
He was only narrowly beaten by a horse that has established himself one of the top handicappers over smaller obstacles and the experience of a battle will be of great benefit having won his previous races with the minimum of fuss.
He’s looked green throughout the season and will make a mighty fine novice chaser next season but he hails from the yard of a trainer with a terrific strike rate and the suggestion is that better festival ground will be more to his liking.
If he continues to develop, and brushes up his jumping which can be awkward at times, then he looks a good bet for a place at worst wherever he goes at Cheltenham.
Though the same owner has the impressive Alvisio Ville as a possible for this race too, the suggestion has been that Jollyallan will run here and given said owner I dare say he’ll be considerably shorter than the 16/1 currently still available on the day.
Sponsors of the race Sky Bet have had some good concessions since taking over sponsorship of the race and will more than likely offer enhanced place terms given the strong favourite this time around, so it is with a little bit of reluctance that an each-way play is put forward for this race.
That said, their prices will almost certainly be worse than industry standard should they offer a concession such as that and I genuinely think that based on his achievements to date, Jollyallan is overpriced at 16/1.
Given how reliable a piece of form the Bumper is from the previous season usually, Silver Concorde is also of great interest at an each-way price. He has only had the one start to date over hurdles though and suffered an odds-on reverse, it was on ground he would have hated though and should be seen in a much better light come the festival.
I’d like to see another run from him before then but given how well he performed in the top Bumpers last season he is definitely one to respect here.
The rest of the market principles here are predictably trained by Willie Mullins, with many of them likely to run elsewhere. He will probably run at least another two in addition to Douvan but with the exception of ex-flat horse Nichols Canyon the rest look more likely to be tried over further.
The ex-John Gosden inmate Nichols Canyon though looks a two-miler, he was rated 104 on the flat and won the Grade 1 Royal Bond in November before unseating at Leopardstown over Christmas. He has looked good though and given the strength in depth Mullins has should not be dismissed as the second string by any means.
It’s Harry Fry’s Jollyallan that stands out as the best bet in this race at present though and he will undoubtedly be shorter on the day and really probably should be right now.
Though no one is surprised by Fry’s successes now, if Jollyallan was trained by a Mullins, Henderson or Nicholls he’d probably be a fraction of his current price and with any babyish tendencies hopefully ironed out of him before the festival by his upwardly mobile trainer I’m hopeful he can get the week off to a good start and possibly spring somewhat of an upset in the festival opener.
Recommendation:
Jollyallan 0.5pt each-way @ 16/1 (Sky Bet, Bet Victor, Paddy Power)
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