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| C-Irv Ball - Irving is my speculative outside bet to sneak a place in Tuesday's feature. |
I truly believe that Faugheen and Un De Sceaux will both win on the opening day and in the process create yet another ‘Ruby Tuesday’ but with their prices both long gone the task now is finding some semblance of value left in both races so as not to come across like one of the many ‘boom merchants’ you find on Twitter these days celebrating ‘tipping’ a horse that is odds on.
The obvious value call in the Champion Hurdle is Jezki each-way at 6/1 as the big three look like being tough to keep out of the places. It seems lazy to simply go for that easy option though even if a seemingly easy return is usually desperately needed during Cheltenham week!
Beaten three times by Hurricane Fly this season Jezki was even beaten for second by Arctic Fire last time out, throwing an element of doubt on the big three will be the 1-2-3 argument mentioned above.
He did make a pretty serious blunder at the last flight that day though and his season has charted a similar course to last year when he of course claimed glory in this race.
I do think he’ll be seen to better effect at the festival, but I’m greedy and an eternal optimist so I’m going to look for a horse at a bigger price that could capitalise should one of the big three not fire and miss the frame.
Arctic Fire is the obvious one having been tipped by Pricewise and then, as previously mentioned, finished in front of Jezki in the Irish equivalent of this race.
However he could potentially be the Mullins third string and would surely not have beaten Jezki last time but for that blunder, and though he got closer to them both than many would have expected in the Ryanair Hurdle he has been beaten this season by the horse I think makes most appeal at current prices.
Last season Irving was sent off joint favourite for the Supreme having gone in to the race unbeaten over obstacles.
He bombed out that day though but still finished in a respectable spot when you look back at the race. The runaway winner aside there wasn’t much ground between the next eleven home and though the effort was considered a disappointment given how prominent in the market he’d been he was staying on late suggesting getting up that hill isn’t an issue and beat home the likes of Valseur Lido, Gilgamboa, Garde Le Victoire and Splash Of Ginge all of whom have come out and won good races this season in one sphere or another.
If I’m honest I’d been hoping for more this season thus far but he’s only had three runs to date and has won a Grade 1, albeit a pretty weak renewal of the Fighting Fifth but Aurore D’Estruval and Arctic Fire have boosted the form since.
To my eye he was coming to win the race on his seasonal reappearance when coming down and taking a nasty spill and had he done so we’d also be talking about a horse that had accounted for the evergreen Rock On Ruby this season as he looked to have his measure that day.
His Christmas hurdle effort was a bitter disappointment, but he was found to be wrong and hopefully now back to full fitness and with better ground hopefully allowing him to utilise his high cruising speed to greater effect he can start to fully realise his potential. He’s still only lightly raced too so it’s not ridiculous to think there could be more improvement in him yet.
He’s entered for the Kingwell at Wincanton on Saturday and should he be victorious there will almost certainly shorten up quite a bit for the Champion Hurdle given how few legitimate challengers have come out of the pack this season other than Arctic Fire.
He has to win on Saturday yet though and giving weight away to some decent rivals will not be easy, if he was to flop then you’d think connections may reconsider the Champion Hurdle so 33/1 NRNB looks the bet.
If I’m wrong about him and he does disappoint again you’d hope they will pull stumps for Cheltenham but if he goes in on Saturday you’d expect him to be much shorter in the betting this time next week.
This is of course a speculative bet because Faugheen looks a monster and I am firmly in the believer camp. I’ve heard all the arguments against him and though I’ll agree his price is now pretty laughable I think he’ll win and win well.
I’ve never warmed to The New One and there’s no real reason why, however there’s no arguing he’s supremely talented and it’d be no surprise to see him win here.
I’ve spent much of the last two seasons unsuccessfully trying to get him beat though and in light of a pretty poor prep run last time out I see no reason that will change in a race where he will face proper horses for the first time this season.
If Hurricane Fly runs, which I think is still a doubt; it will be some ask for him to regain his crown for a second time. He’s been magic to watch this season but he’s never quite been at his brilliant best round Cheltenham though he hasn’t truly needed to be to win two Champion Hurdles.
Up against a pretty vintage collection of hurdlers though he would need to be at his absolute peak this time around and as brilliant as he is, and I do love the horse, he’s probably not quite the force of old when out of his comfort zone.
The Champion Hurdle has been one of the most anticipated races of the festival for most of the season, and with all the main protagonists still standing their ground it more than looks like living up to its billing.
In Faugheen, The New One and Jezki we could have a battle for the ages, but with a doubt over the old champion Hurricane Fly perhaps even running, should one of the three market leaders make a mistake or receive a slice of misfortune during the race a place could open up for something at a big price to sneak in to the frame.
Irving has critics to silence, but if he wins on Saturday and proves he retains the ability that saw him spend much of last season as favourite for the Supreme he must come in to the race with a live outside chance of shaking up the current established order in this division.
Recommendation:
Irving 0.25pt e/w @ 33/1 (Bet365, Sky Bet, Paddy Power) [NRNB]
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