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| A-Ma-zing - Ma Filleule looks to have a great chance in the Ryanair. |
However with a couple of second season chasers proving themselves high class performers over the interim distance this season, the race is far from merely just an afterthought of an event for those not capable of cutting it in the championship contests.
With Al Ferof and Dynaste now out of the festival and Champagne Fever seemingly aiming at the Champion Chase the top of the market for this year’s Ryanair now has a very different complexion to a few weeks back.
The reformed Don Cossack rightfully sits at the head of the betting, as he has for much of the season having finally fulfilled the potential we all knew he had.
He’s won four Graded races this season including the Grade 1 John Durkan and has looked impressive each time in doing so.
He always looked a chaser and it’s reassuring to see those of us that predicted big things for him have been proved right finally, but as much as I’m a huge fan of Gordon Elliot’s charge you’d have to say that at no bigger than 4/1 he’s plenty short enough in the betting for a race that can bring together an eclectic bunch of participants and throw up a surprise or two.
A former winner sits next in the betting in Cue Card, but in spite of a solid festival record coming in on the back of two double digit length defeats to Silviniaco Conti in the winter he’s not one I’d be looking at given a stuttering campaign.
He’ll surely be better on the spring ground and given that the jury is out on whether he truly stays will certainly be able to bowl along in front here and he might not come back to them, but having had his problems he’s priced up on former glories rather than anything he’s done recently.
I’m prepared to look foolish but this looks the soft option for him and I think even that may be too much based on recent exploits.
Balder Succes sits next in the betting and though he’s another one I have a lot of time for, his Cheltenham record (been on the deck every visit) and his apparent lack of appetite for larger fields puts me off him for this.
I had pegged him as a lively Champion Chase contender at the start of this season so it’s somewhat surprising to see him thriving over middle distances at present, but the step up appears to have elicited the further improvement I expected of him this year and he’s proven himself well up to the Grade at this trip.
Those two quirks though – in fairness the Cheltenham record could be more bad luck than anything – are a concern and as such he now looks a little on the short side from a betting perspective.
Like Don Cossack I would certainly not begrudge him a win here but the value would appear to lie elsewhere for me.
Jonjo O’Neill has both Johns Spirit and Taquin Du Seuil prominent in the betting but for me the former looks like falling a little short at this level.
He was well beaten in the King George when last seen, but his Cheltenham record is stellar, he has festival form (4th in the Byrne Group Plate last year) and I keep hearing how adept his trainer is at getting them ready for the Cheltenham festival so he cannot be written off lightly.
I suspect he’ll run his race and not be far away again but on all known form he should probably find one or two of these too good and as a result looks plenty short enough in the betting now thanks to a Pricewise vote of confidence recently.
Taquin Du Seuil meanwhile is a horse I thought could make up in to a Gold Cup contender this season, but the winner of last year’s JLT (the novice equivalent of this) has been bitterly disappointing this season thus far.
Things started okay and his second to Menorah in the Charlie Hall (Silviniaco Conti in behind) is solid enough but then the wheels came off and he jumped atrociously in the Betfair Chase before being pulled up.
He returned from a break in the Denman at Newbury earlier this month when his jumping again let him down and he finished a well beaten fourth.
If his trainer can bring him back to win this it will be some feat and though it’s not impossible it’s hard to recommend him on the back of those most recent efforts.
As already mentioned Champagne Fever is Champion Chase bound, as is Hidden Cyclone, while Djakadam and Boston Bob are heading for the Gold Cup.
That all really doesn’t leave much else other than Eduard, a horse you would have to say is probably not up to this level, Wishfull Thinking an admirable veteran that has proved the fire still burns this season but would need to be right back to his peak to land a blow here and Ballynagour, winner of last year’s Byrne Group Plate and twice placed at Graded level at the end of last season.
The Pipe horse hasn’t run since pulling up in the Hennessy though and although it’d be no surprise to see his shrewd connections have him back to his best for this he looks a dicey betting proposition given that he’s either brilliant or bombs out completely.
He is however twice the price and then some of the horse he beat in last year’s Byrne Group, but that’s possibly more to do with his vanquished opponent from twelve months ago being too short rather than Ballynagour being over-priced.
Caid Du Berlais is one that could be interesting at a massive price if he was to run here, but given he’s disputing favouritism for the aforementioned Byrne Group Plate the writing could be on the wall for where he takes his festival chance.
The Paddy Power is not a bad guide to the Ryanair though and Caid Du Berlais put up an impressive display when winning that most competitive of handicaps back in November.
He’s twice been beaten at Cheltenham since but was charging up the hill too late last time and could run in to a place at a price here if lining up and things going more his way than his last couple of efforts.
My pick in the Ryanair though is a horse not yet mentioned that you’ve probably gathered, if you’re a regular reader, that I have a bit of a soft spot for.
I had very high hopes for Ma Filleule this season and though it’s not quite happened yet I’m not giving up on her just yet, and her run behind Balder Succes in the Ascot Chase last time out offered enough encouragement that she could be coming back to her best in time for two festivals that she performed incredibly well at last season.
Her Cheltenham record isn’t much to write home about, but she was an excellent second to leading Gold Cup hope Holywell in the three mile handicap at the festival last season before absolutely running away with the Topham at Aintree.
She clearly needed the run when well beaten at Down Royal on her reappearance before being undone by a farcical race at Aintree where her greatest asset – her jumping – was unable to be utilised with almost half the fences omitted.
Given I’m keen on Sam Winner – her conqueror that day – for the Gold Cup the form of the race (Holywell falling when looking in trouble) doesn’t look bad, it’s just the manner in which it all occurred that felt a bit cheap.
She looked a little like she struggled to get home that day so a stiff two and a half miles should be right up her street, she valiantly chased home Balder Succes last time out, not really closing but never giving up, and those qualities can’t help but endear you to her and will be vital if getting in to a battle up the hill.
Her stop-start campaign has been one typical of a horse that often finds themselves in the Ryanair, but I’m still convinced there’s more to come from her yet and though she’s still in the Gold Cup too that last run would seem to suggest this is her target, and with a handy mares allowance to boot I think she can go close here.
Recommendation:
Ma Filleule 0.5pt each-way @ 10/1 (Bet365, Sky Bet, Stan James)
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