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| Grand Cranyon - Nichols Canyon looks a worthy favourite in the Neptune. |
As the middle distance hurdles race for novices the Neptune is often the most difficult race to assess from a long range perspective given its interim distance.
You’re highly unlikely to see a horse tried over 2m or 3m drop back or step up to one or the other, however it is much the norm to see horses campaigned over two and a half miles to do either.
That makes the Neptune a tough race to call because there is a very good chance the race will cut up and there a number of horses prominent in the betting that look nailed on to run in one of the other two novice hurdle events.
The recent vibes though seem to suggest that classy flat recruit Nichols Canyon – currently heading the betting for the race – will indeed run here and with the NRNB concession now in effect you can back him safe in the knowledge that should there be a late twist in the tail before the start of the festival and the Mullins pack is reshuffled your bet will simply be voided.
Rated 104 at his peak on the flat and a Listed winner and Group placed, Nichols Canyon is one of the classiest flat recruits to ever go hurdling and comparisons have already been drawn between him and the great Istabraq.
Time will tell whether these comparisons are warranted or not but Nichols Canyon is unbeaten over timber when standing up and prepped for the Neptune with an impressive win in the Deloitte against a good field.
His hurdling has not always been the most fluent – as evidenced by the U tucked away amongst those 1s in his form – but he looked very good last time out making virtually all under Ruby Walsh and looked to have that potent mix of stamina and speed you would expect from an ex-flat horse of his class.
The stream of money in the last few days has been relentless and with the bulk of the likely Irish challenge in the race coming from the same yard, several entrants high in the betting likely to be defectors and the possibility of a Mullins-Walsh benefit occurring the day before there’s a very strong chance he could go off a very short-priced favourite indeed – think Faugheen in this last year.
The main challenge on the domestic front looks likely to come from another decent ex-flat horse in John Ferguson’s Parlour Games, formerly with Godolphin.
He wasn’t in Nichols Canyon’s league on the level and has had a very unusual campaign for a leading Neptune contender having begun his hurdling career back in May last year.
He’s progressed well though and he won a Grade 2 at Cheltenham before a good win in the Grade 1 Challow at the end of December. He travels through his races supremely well and has an exciting turn of foot.
Whether he’ll quite be able to utilise that burst of speed to as great an effect in the Neptune is open for debate though as his only other run in a decent sized field saw him finish well beaten at Galway.
Willie Mullins also has Outlander towards the head of the market but he doesn’t look to be as good as the selection, in spite of that surprising victory at Grade 2 level last time when No More Heroes bombed out.
His three starts over hurdles have yielded two wins and a narrow defeat though so he’s to be taken seriously and he does stay further, but although the perceived Mullins second and third strings have been springing some upsets in some races this season you would think that Nichols Canyon will be too strong for his stable mate and their form looks to back that up.
Next in the betting comes Dermot Weld’s Windsor Park but he has been beaten by both Outlander and Nichols Canyon this season and had no answer to the selection last time out so it’s difficult to envisage circumstances in which he’ll reverse that form.
Nicky Henderson’s Kilcrea Vale sits next in the betting but with only one hurdles start to date – an admittedly impressive Market Rasen romp – he’s very hard to weigh up in the context of this race.
Shaneshill (in the same ownership as Nichols Canyon), Douvan, Black Hercules, Alvisio Ville, Tea For Two and Vyta Du Roc are all likely to run elsewhere if they even indeed head to the festival, which really only leaves Ordo Ab Chao, a battling winner of the trial for this race on trials day last month and Tell Us More from the same connections as Outlander.
Ordo Ab Chao sprang somewhat of a shock on trials day but accounted for some decent horses there including the highly touted Value At Risk but he’d previously been comprehensively beaten by Vyta Du Roc and Shantou Bob at Sandown.
How trials day third Vago Collonges performs later today should give an idea of how strong the form of his Cheltenham win is and though he could be a dark horse at present he looks to be priced up about right.
Tell Us More is interesting though and had originally been my pick for this race, but he’s been somewhat in limbo since his odds on defeat to stable mate McKinley in a Naas Grade 1 back in early January.
The winner that day has not exactly franked the form since but he was only narrowly beaten that day and travelled in to the race like the superstar he’d been touted as.
He still has other engagements and could end up in the Supreme or missing the festival altogether but now NRNB is available he’s worth a second look even as the potential Mullins third string here because if he were to take his chance, given that earlier hype, you’d suspect he’ll be considerably shorter than the 10/1 you can get NRNB at the moment.
This year’s Neptune looks like it could end up being quite a weak renewal which makes Nichols Canyon’s chance all the more obvious. If the race does cut up as expected he will be much shorter than he is now even with the trimming of a point or so for the NRNB concession.
He’s been mentioned in the same breath as some very good horses and you get the feeling that connections have some lofty aspirations for him. His flat form gives him a clear class edge on most of his likely opposition and barring the odd blunder at a hurdle here and there he has proved he’s been able to translate that ability on the level to hurdling.
If day one pans out the way many are expecting it to with total Mullins domination Nichols Canyon could be the subject of a right old gamble to start day two and as such he’s worth a bet now.
Recommendation:
Nichols Canyon 1pt win @ 4/1 (Bet365, Boylesports) [NRNB]
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