Festival Focus – RSA Chase 2015

On Top At The Pols - Don Poli can stay on for glory in the RSA.

This year’s RSA picture is muddied by the fact that the two horses at the head of the market at present could both run in different races at the festival.

After Coneygree’s impressive romp at the weekend – and given what an open (read, terrible) renewal of the race it looks – I’d say connections will now go for the Gold Cup with him.

Don Poli on the other hand has long been touted for the four-miler but I for one cannot see Willie Mullins not running his best staying novice in the RSA, regardless of whether that means son Patrick will get to ride him in the amateur event.

I’ve been keen on Don Poli all season – he was one of my horses to follow this season – and he’s done nothing to dampen that enthusiasm in his two chase starts to date, including when winning a good renewal of the Topaz (a solid RSA trial) at Leopardstown over Christmas, the form of which was franked at the weekend by Apache Stronghold.

With Valseur Lido looking more like a horse for which the intermediate trip will be more his bag, Gigginstown don’t really have another representative for the RSA, whereas for the four-miler they have a readymade alternative in Wounded Warrior and could also run Thunder and Roses and Very Wood.

All that to me suggests, and has always suggested, that Don Poli will be RSA-bound. Yes Willie Mullins seemed to lock in the four-miler at the start of the season by suggesting the horse was tailor made for it, but that comment came in the aftermath of his debut over fences and a lot has changed since then.

Recent market support looks to be suggesting this race will be the target now and with festival form already in the bag after winning the Martin Pipe last year (the same race Sir Des Champs won before following up in a novice chase for the same connections the following season) and doubts over several of his market rivals he looks the one to be on.

It’s a risk with the National Hunt Chase not yet ruled out, but Don Poli looks a stayer and unlike the horse I suspect will be his main market rival, Kings Palace, I don’t have any concerns about him getting up the hill in a race run at festival pace.

If Coneygree comes here then he’ll be a very tough horse to beat having proven himself already in the same league as some of the best staying chasers around.

However were he to line up, he and Kings Palace having a ding dong battle out in front could set the race up for an out and out stayer and for me that would only suit Don Poli further, so I wouldn’t be put off should connections opt to run the Denman Chase winner here instead.

Kings Palace has been impressive in two wins at Cheltenham so far this campaign but he was far from convincing winning a two runner affair at Newbury at the weekend and his capitulation in the Albert Bartlett last season lives long in the memory.

He’s more than short enough for my liking and is readily passed over in spite of his obvious ability.

The Young Master is another interesting contender and though there has also been talk of the four-miler for him the vibes now seem to be that he will run here, and given that he too gave the seasoned Houblon Des Obeaux a beating (albeit getting lumps more weight than Coneygree was) there’s an argument to be made that he should probably be shorter.

As an ex-flat horse he doesn’t exactly scream stayer, but he’s proven himself worthy of a crack at this with his handicap wins this season and though he has a tendency to blunder his way over a fence or two, which he won’t get away with in a race like this, he’s on a roll and should not be underestimated.

Valseur Lido, who we’ve already touched on briefly, is a more likely JLT candidate for me as are Apache Stronghold, Ptit Zig and Vautour all of whom are prominent in the betting too.

Southfield Theatre is probably the most interesting of the others towards the top of the market. He impressed me at the start of the season and looked an ideal type for this, but after suffering an odds on defeat to Carraig Mor on ground clearly not to his liking he was given a break and went on a drift for this.

After Pricewise put him up and having got back to winning ways with a defeat of Melodic Rendezvous at the weekend over a less than ideal trip, he has shortened back up but does still offer some each way value given how many above him in the betting could come out.

The better ground will suit him and with a good festival run last season to his name (second in the Pertemps) he’d be my alternative to the selection.

I’ve had Don Poli in mind for the RSA since last season’s festival though and his progression this season has only further convinced me of his credentials. The worry that he’ll run elsewhere is slowly dissipating as I become more and more convinced connections will do the right thing and run him here and with the price shortening I want to back him now.

Recommendation:

Don Poli 1pt win @ 5/1 (Boylesports, Betfair Sportsbook, Racebets)