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| Turn up for the Books - Can Overturn upset Simonsig in the Arkle? |
You wait all year for it to come around and then within just a couple of hours you feel spoilt with all the Grade 1 action. Not long after the Supreme will have hopefully got us off to a great start to the week, the Arkle will be upon us and like last year Nicky Henderson once again looks set to saddle a very short-priced favourite.
Sprinter Sacre justified his punitive odds last year when hacking up in the race and Henderson’s charge for 2013 looks likely to do the same. Simonsig has always looked a very special horse indeed but since his belated return to the track to begin his novice chase campaign late last year he has looked unstoppable.
The manner and margin of his victories has been impressive and although he hasn’t really beaten much – as is the case with most of these – on his hurdles form (he won the Neptune last year at the Festival before going on to win at Aintree) and generally just how exciting he’s looked over fences – 49 and 35l victories, last time out giving nearly a stone to the useful Hinterland – he looks the most likely winner.
However, and this could be a case of heart ruling head, I’m trying to pick out some value ante-post bets and there’s no value in an even money favourite, at least note at the stakes I usually play with.
There is however value in a horse that arguably has stronger hurdles form than Simonsig and has also, some would say, achieved pretty much the same over fences so far, and that horse is one of my favourite horses in training the courageous Overturn.
He’s been a highly consistent performer on the flat, over hurdles and now over fences for four years or so now. He won a Chester Cup on the flat and a Northumberland Plate over hurdles before arguably his stand-out year last season in which he landed the Coral Hurdle at Ascot and the Fighting Fifth before finishing a game second in the Champion Hurdle behind Rock On Ruby.
Reports suggested he was already schooling well over fences months before the new season began and he’s looked fleet-footed and assured in his two runs over the larger obstacles thus far.
The stats will tell you he’s too old to win an Arkle and Simonsig truly does look something very special indeed but at the prices and with the likelihood that Overturn and Arvika Ligeonniere are going to go off in front at a rapid rate of knots there’s enough of a glimmer of doubt in my mind that Simonsig could be vulnerable in the same way that Hurricane Fly was in last year’s Champion Hurdle to Overturn’s free-wheeling ways.
With Captain Conan now looking likely to be re-routed to the Jewson to avoid a clash with stable mate Simonsig there really doesn’t look to be anything other than the first three in the betting that can win the Arkle at this point.
Willie Mullins’ Arvika Ligeonniere has too looked top class at 2m this season, making all to land two grade ones in Ireland and already looking the most likely winner of the upcoming Irish equivalent to this race.
With Simonsig also likely to go from the front tactics could play a big part in this year’s Arkle and while I fully expect Barry Geraghty to get them right on Simonsig the little bits of doubt I have in my mind are enough to make me take a chance on my old favourite, the little horse that could Overturn.
Arkle 2013 – Selected Best Odds:
Simonsig Evens
Arvika Ligeonniere 7/1
Overturn 7/1
Captain Conan 10/1
Oscars Well 16/1
Sword Of Destiny 20/1
Module 25/1
Raya Star 25/1
Tetlami 25/1
Baby Mix 33/1
Dunguib 33/1
Hinterland 33/1
Salden Licht 33/1
Recommendation:
Back Overturn to win @ 7/1 with Youwin (5/1 NRFB with Bet Victor)
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