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| Ain't It Grand - Grandouet looks the pick of a strong Henderson hand in the Champion Hurdle |
Rock On Ruby should be back again to defend his crown come March, as should several of his vanquished opponents from twelve months ago, including the aforementioned Hurricane Fly.
The Champion Hurdle is usually a frantic affair and this year’s race has an extra element of intrigue around it due to many of the prominent trials for the race having been run on bog-like ground. This has meant that the majority of the leading contenders – all of whom possess bags of speed – have not really had the opportunity to show exactly what they are capable of this season over the trip.
This could be the case for a lot of the races at the festival this year, with pretty much the entire National Hunt season to date being run on bad ground, but the races with an emphasis on speed such as the Champion Hurdle will be even more greatly affected.
One such trial that was run on terrible ground was the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton on Boxing Day which saw several of the leading protagonists in this year’s Champion Hurdle clash. Coming out on top that day was Darlan, who in spite of concerns all year from connections about his ability to act on heavy going, seemed to handle the Kempton quagmire just fine and immediately shot himself to the head of the market for the Champion Hurdle.
Second in last year’s Supreme at the festival, Darlan is clearly a class horse but how strong the form of the Christmas Hurdle really is remains to be seen in my eyes. I have used the form of the race as a selling point for Dodging Bullets in the Supreme and to me for a novice that was a good run and represents strong form but whether the form of the race is strong enough for a Champion Hurdle contender, and a 4/1 second favourite at that, I’m not so sure.
And of course the Christmas Hurdle form begs the question that if you think Darlan is a good bet then surely Raya Star has to be the each-way bet of the season?
Yes, Darlan looked more impressive and won with a bit in hand but Raya Star was only 4 ½ lengths back in second and is ten times the price of Darlan, I’m not using this to advocate a bet on Raya Star, as tough and consistent as he is, I’m using it to validate why I think Darlan is too short and why the other leading Henderson contender is the horse for me in the race.
Grandouet was well fancied for the Champion Hurdle last season before injury sadly ruled him out and I still believe that we may not yet have seen the best of this horse as a result.
Third behind Zarkandar in the Triumph of two seasons ago, he looked all set to reverse that result at Aintree the following month when brought down whilst ominously cruising in to the race; he did gain compensation for that misfortune at the very end of that season winning a Grade 1 at Punchestown to cap a promising juvenile campaign.
Grandouet returned last season in the Elite Hurdle at Wincanton early on in the campaign and again came to grief when looking the likely winner of the race, falling at the second last hurdle. He gained recompense two weeks later at Haydock before impressing in the International Hurdle at Cheltenham seeing off Overturn by 4l albeit in receipt of weight – the form of that particular International looks strong too with Menorah and Sanctuaire well beaten in behind.
That victory was enough to confirm him one of the leading contenders for this race twelve months ago but injury kept him off the track for twelve months before finally returning in last month’s International.
This time Grandouet had to give weight away, most importantly to old rival Zarkandar and although he once again exhibited that high cruising speed and travelled in to the race looking dangerous, he was unable to deliver that potent turn of foot he has on the desperate ground and Zarkandar gamely held on to land the tactical affair.
Current champ Rock On Ruby was back in third that day and although he too wouldn’t have liked the ground the run did nothing to dispel that school of thought that he may have somewhat ‘stole’ last year’s Champion Hurdle.
Rock On Ruby is without a doubt a very good horse and he has performed consistently well at the highest level but in spite of winning a Champion Hurdle the suspicion still remains that if the other main challengers all turn up with their A-game, which arguably didn’t happen in last year’s race, he will usually find one or two of them too good.
10/1 looks a huge price about a defending champion but – and these words may come back to haunt me – until he backs up his win in the race last year, which as yet I don’t think he’s done, I can’t bring myself to consider him enough of a challenger to some of the others at the head of the betting.
I’ve been a Zarkandar fan for a long time but I’m afraid to say in spite of being unbeaten so far this season, the same sentiments tend to apply to him as to Rock On Ruby. Zarkandar may have beaten Grandouet last month but he did so getting weight, on ground he was arguably better suited to and with Grandouet coming back from a year long absence. In a Graded race going forward I can’t envisage Zarkandar ever finishing in front of Grandouet again.
His only defeat in Britain when completing was fifth in this race last year but he strikes me as more of a battler – if the ground was soft then his chance would increase infinitely, but on good ground (which we will hopefully get) several of these look like being too quick for him.
In front of Zarkandar last year but still disappointing given the high esteem in which he’s held was 2010 champ Hurricane Fly.
After a couple of years of disappointment with injury scuppering his festival chances the hurricane blew through Prestbury Park in 2010 as he held off Peddlers Cross to finally prove to everyone he could come to Cheltenham and be as dominant as he had across the Irish Sea.
An astonishing thirteen Grade 1 races are already in the bag for Hurricane Fly and he has turned in some of the most dominant performances over hurdles that we have seen in the last few years.
If he romps home as we have become accustomed to, then how he was ever allowed to be backed at 7/2 will be the question on everyone’s lips; but last year’s defeat showed that he isn’t quite as indestructible as people had come to think and for me there’s still a niggling doubt that he can be beaten again.
He’s only raced on English soil twice, both at Cheltenham and he’s 1 from 2, before his first Champion Hurdle run many questioned whether he would get up the hill and he seemed to put those concerns to rest with his win but last year he just couldn’t quicken on the run in to reel in the trailblazers and he could be susceptible again if similar circumstances occurred.
Tactics will surely be different this time around and he will have a master in the saddle that will no doubt have him much closer to the leaders this time, but to me at the prices he looks ripe for taking on especially given how fragile he has been over the past few seasons.
The other main two contenders – given that I fully expect Oscar Whisky to go to the World Hurdle barring some sort of dramatic turn around – are last season’s 2m novice hurdle winners at the festival.
Countrywide Flame and Cinders And Ashes clashed in the Fighting Fifth to begin their season, with the former impressively coming out on top it was suggested due to a combination of race fitness (he was coming off the back of a remarkable second in the Cesarewitch on the flat the previous month) and the latter not seeming to handle the ground at all in spite of having won in similar conditions last season.
The pair of them were well back in the Christmas Hurdle, but both are expected to improve for the return of better ground. Cinders And Ashes especially for me though as yet doesn’t look to have trained on, however both come here with festival form in the bag and I don’t think either can be discounted.
Of the remainder Grumeti and Cotton Mill could both look to have been huge prices depending on what they do on their belated comebacks, but for me unless you fancy taking a big chance at a price both are best watched in their returns before turning an eye to Cheltenham.
You never know which Binocular you’re going to get but it wouldn’t be the biggest turn up in the world were another former winner of the race to bounce right back to form in the race this year.
With Darlan seemingly the Henderson-McCoy-McManus big hope for the race this year though I would be surprised but not shocked were Binocular to regain his Champion Hurdle crown this year.
Nicky Henderson certainly looks to have an enviable hand in the race this year and although he’s not the shortest of the bunch in the betting Grandouet looks the pick to me.
I managed to back him at 10/1 before the International and although I also backed him for that race and he was beaten I was very happy with the run looking ahead to the festival.
7/1 still looks value to me and unlike several of his likely opponents I expect him to still have further improvement in him, which based on what we’ve seen from him thus far should see him go very, very close.
Champion Hurdle 2013 – Selected Best Odds:
Hurricane Fly 7/2
Darlan 4/1
Grandouet 7/1
Zarkandar 15/2
Rock On Ruby 10/1
Oscar Whisky 16/1
Cinders And Ashes 18/1
Countrywide Flame 20/1
Binocular 25/1
Grumeti 25/1
Peddlers Cross 40/1
Raya Star 40/1
Balder Succes 50/1
Cotton Mill 50/1
Dodging Bullets 50/1
Recommendation:
Back Grandouet to win @ 7/1 (Bet Victor [NRFB])
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