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| Anyone for Tea? - Teaforthree can land the Welsh National for the home team on Saturday |
I’ve long fancied long time ante-post favourite Teaforthree for the race and although it’s easy to say that with him now 3/1 favourite for the race, hopefully anyone who checked out my Ten To Follow list from the start of the jumps season will know I’ve been sweet on this horse for the big staying events of the season for some time.
The value may now all but be gone but I am confident of a big run from Teaforthree on Saturday and I'm really struggling to see anything in there that can beat Rebecca Curtis’s horse.
He appears to have had a well-plotted campaign to get to this point – his sixth in what looks to have been a particularly strong Hennessy standing out even more now than it did at the time with the second and third having come out and been 1-2 in the Lexus.
Tony McCoy gets on well with this horse and although he wasn’t aboard for the horse’s biggest win to date – in the four miler at the festival – he knows the horse and it’s not exactly a well-kept secret that this has been the target for the horse for quite some time.
Teaforthree has won on heavy ground before so for me there aren’t really any ground concerns and with Across The Bay topping the weights and seemingly an intended runner he should get to go off a nice enough racing weight.
As mentioned above there’s not much value left in the price at this stage but Teaforthree, as he has for some time now, still appeals as the most likely winner of the rescheduled Grade 3 race.
Mud-loving Giles Cross is probably feared the most as a potential conqueror, he revelled in the mud to finish second in this last year and had previously been second of three finishers in a heavy ground run Eider up at Newcastle proving he stays in the absolute worst ground.
He won the Haydock Grand National trial following Chepstow last year, once again on heavy ground before flopping in the big race itself on ground much quicker than ideal for him. Providing the equine herpes outbreak that hit trainer Victor Dartnall’s yard at the beginning of the season has left no ill-effects then Giles Cross looks a big price and looks to represent rock solid each-way value; if I wasn’t so keen on the favourite he’d be my bet.
The red hot David Pipe yard have two in the race – second favourite (at the time of writing) Sona Sasta and another mud-lover Master Overseer.
Though the former has been well-backed, gets in at the bottom of the weights with a good claimer taking off another 7lb and has bits and pieces of form that suggest he should go well, it is the latter that makes most appeal to me on the strength of his Midlands Grand National win back in March and his admirable win in a Grade 3 event at Cheltenham last month.
14/1 looks a big price for Master Overseer taking in to account he’s arguably the form horse going in to the race and he’d be my idea of the other participant most likely to fill the place spots.
The gambled upon Alfie Spinner now looks likely to head to the handicap chase at Sandown rather than take his chance at Chepstow and of the other backed horses Viking Blond catches the eye for the Twiston-Davies yard who’ve been enjoying a rich vein of form in some of these Grand National-esque races so far this season. In the same ownership as Sprinter Sacre, Viking Blond’s not exactly as exciting but is a consistent enough performer that if he were to put in a good round of jumping he could go close.
Paul Nicholls’ Michel Le Bon isn’t for me until he shows something close to the potential everyone knows him to have, especially in a slog like this is likely to become and although Monbeg Dude for Michael Scudamore was some 40l in front of Teaforthree when they last met there’s a suspicion that was his big day and he’ll do well to finish even a fraction of that distance in front of the selection this time around.
Of the remainder Soll, formerly with Willie Mullins now with Jo Hughes, could be a bit of a dark horse in the race. Eighth in the Hennessy and brought down in the four miler at Cheltenham when travelling well, the form ties in with Teaforthree somewhat. He’s lightly-raced, will go on the ground yet is almost five times the price of the favourite; you’re taking a chance with a horse that hasn’t won for almost a year but he appeals as another that could run a big race at a price.
In closing, there looks to be plenty of each-way value available in a race that beyond the favourite seems to pit several closely matched horses against each other on ground that could throw up an upset, or three. Although the value may now be long gone favourite Teaforthree still looks the best bet in the race though and can prove a popular winner for local girl Rebecca Curtis.
Welsh National – Selected Best Odds:
Teaforthree 3/1
Sona Sasta 7/1
Viking Blond 7/1
Michel Le Bon 8/1
Giles Cross 10/1
Alfie Spinner 11/1
Master Overseer 14/1
Monbeg Dude 14/1
Quartz de Thaix 14/1
Soll 14/1
Universal Soldier 14/1
Cool Operator 20/1
Across The Bay 25/1
Major Malarkey 25/1
Katenko 28/1
Royal Charm 28/1
Recommendation:
Back Teaforthree to win @ 3/1 (Bet365, Bet Victor, William Hill, Stan James)
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