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| #1 With a Bullet - Dodging Bullets is my first advised bet for the Cheltenham Festival |
It seems only right that this year’s round of Festival Focus previews would begin with the first race of the week – the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle – a race which is famous for starting with the ‘Cheltenham roar’ from the crowd that usually signifies the beginning of an unforgettable week of Racing action.
In recent years a feature of the Supreme has been a short-priced favourite that everyone thinks will be a ‘good thing’ to begin the week with to be beaten. Cousin Vinny, Dunguib and Cue Card have all had this fate befall them in the last few years.
Whilst this year, as yet, we have no such short-priced market leader at the head of the betting, we do have two very good horses from either side of the Irish Sea.
Oliver Sherwood’s Puffin Billy is, however, now starting to slide a little in the betting after his trainer seemed to suggest he would be more likely to contest the interim distance hurdle race the Neptune.
Looking nothing less than a machine so far in his fledgling career if the Puffin was to take his chance then he would have to be respected, but as it stands he looks increasingly unlikely to be there in the line-up for Cheltenham 2013’s opening race.
Current market leader Jezki however looks destined to take his chance in the Supreme and will be very hard to beat if he does make it.
Jessica Harrington’s charge has enjoyed an impressive freshman season over hurdles thus far to build on his eighth in the Champion Bumper at the festival last year.
After finishing fifth of fifteen as a beaten favourite in his return to action in a NH flat race at Navan in October he has quickly notched up a four-timer in increasingly impressive circumstances and remains unbeaten over obstacles.
His victory over Champagne Fever in the G1 Royal Bond in November marked him as one to watch for many but with his vanquished opponent that day flopping spectacularly at long odds on last weekend the form of that race may not be all it looked at the time now; although the third and well beaten sixth have both come out and won since.
His last run was impossible not to be impressed with though, as he pulled an emphatic six lengths clear of the useful Waaheb to land another G1, displaying a lightening turn of foot in doing so.
How good the horses in behind Jezki that day were though remains to be seen, as stated Waaheb is handy enough but the remainder don’t appear to have been anything special; although saying that, it is a common problem with a lot of Novice hurdles hence why when the cream of the crop finally butt heads a perceived ‘surprise’ often happens.
And the Supreme, of all the races at the festival, is renowned for throwing up a surprise or two, and regular readers will already know that I think at 14/1 Dodging Bullets for Paul Nicholls looks a big price and could be the one to potentially spring that ‘surprise’, although when you really think about it would victory for the Nicholls horse be that much of a surprise?
The experience the horse has in spite of still being classed as a novice could count for a lot – let’s not forget he ran well enough in the Triumph at last year’s festival when fourth on only his second start over hurdles. He has since come out and won twice round Cheltenham this season, winning well first time out before showing tenacity to beat the similarly well-fancied for the Supreme River Maigue latterly.
His third in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton on Boxing Day on horrible ground that wouldn’t have suited also looks a strong piece of form, especially given that the winner of that race Darlan is currently at the head of the betting for the Champion Hurdle.
Dodging Bullets seems to be constantly improving and going from strength to strength with each run, he’s from a yard that won the race the year before last with Al Ferof and has that all important course and festival experience and form already in the bag.
And having been bred by Frankie Dettori, what a story it would be were he to have bred a Cheltenham winner given the twelve months he’s had.
Of the other horses prominent in the betting, River Maigue who was touched on briefly above remains lightly raced and open to further improvement between now and Cheltenham, especially judged on his electric win in the mud at Kempton on Boxing Day. He beat the decent New Year’s Eve by 7l that day but for me when you consider Dodging Bullets was finishing ahead of last year’s Supreme winner and a Fighting Fifth winner in a Grade 1 just a few races on the card later I know who I’d rather be backing at the prices – even more so when you take into account Dodging Bullets’ victory over River Maigue over course and distance already this season.
After his Tolworth win at the weekend you’d have to think Melodic Rendezvous will be more effective over further than the Supreme trip as would the likes of the impressive Rule The World, Challow winner Taquin Du Seuil and Irish raiders Don Cossack and Moscow Mannon, so none of those are even guaranteed to be there come race time.
I think there was a bit of an overreaction however to My Tent Or Yours’ odds-on defeat the weekend before last however and he, on the likely better ground, could still be a big player come March. Owner JP McManus’s just announced reported decision to buy Jezki though could be an indication of a lack of faith in My Tent Or Yours for this race.
He still looks a class horse though, and with many of the others prominent in the betting likely to be routed elsewhere at the festival, is feared most alongside the current favourite.
At the current prices Dodging Bullets stands out to me as the value selection for the race though and I’ve already backed him to get Paul Nicholls off to the best possible start in a week he always does well in, and I’d encourage you to do so too.
Supreme Novices’ Hurdle 2013 – Selected Best Odds:
Jezki 4/1
River Maigue 10/1
Puffin Billy 11/1
Dodging Bullets 14/1
Melodic Rendezvous 14/1
My Tent Or Yours 16/1
Rule The World 16/1
Annie Power 20/1
Cause Of Causes 20/1
Taquin Du Seuil 20/1
Un Atout 20/1
Don Cossack 25/1
Moscow Mannon 25/1
New Years Eve 25/1
Pique Sous 25/1
Recommendation:
Back Dodging Bullets to win @ 14/1 with Boylesports (12/1 Non Runner Free Bet with Bet Victor)
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