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| Part Puffin, Part Machine - Puffin Billy can win the Neptune on the way to superstardom |
Of course, as is the case with most of the novice hurdles at the festival some horses at the head of the betting may end up tackling further in the Albert Bartlett or shorter in the Supreme.
One thing is for certain though, even if we do lose one or two of the potential runners in this year’s Neptune we still look set for a truly vintage renewal of the race won so impressively last year by arguably the next big thing in chasing Simonsig.
The best place to start is probably with the most aptly named horse in a novice race – The New One. The Nigel Twiston-Davies inmate’s price has collapsed since his Warwick stroll the weekend before last and although he was undoubtedly impressive that day I’m not quite convinced that in a race with as much strength in depth as this year’s Neptune has that his current price quite reflects his chance.
Unbeaten under rules with the exception of a sixth place finish in last season’s Champion Bumper, The New One looks to have a huge future and I am a big fan of this horse. He’s unbeaten over hurdles having hosed up at Newcastle on his first start over obstacles before recording an impressive win at Cheltenham at the open meeting.
He then lay to rest any concerns about his well-being after a break with a dominant display at Warwick earlier this month when barely breaking a sweat to win decisively and impressively. This performance saw his price come in dramatically and now all the value looks to have gone. If you got on at the double figure prices widely available before Warwick then you can rest happy in the knowledge that you have an excellent chance of picking up a nice win fall but as we are trying to find a bit of value in these pieces, where there is value to be found that is, I have to take him on.
Willie Mullins’ Pont Alexandre shot to prominence with an impressive Irish debut accounting for the useful Busty Brown by 13l with the odds on favourite Don Cossack having come down when well beaten by the winner.
One heavy ground win in Ireland though makes him a tricky proposition at present – we’ll know more soon with a Grade 2 novice hurdle at the weekend slated for his next run – but as things stand it’s difficult to tip a horse who might have just had a good day, although the suspicion is that he’s a good one compared to the 9/1 you can get on Puffin Billy his price doesn’t look great to me on what we’ve seen so far.
On the other hand the aforementioned Puffin Billy has looked nothing short of a monster thus far and remains unbeaten in both bumpers and over hurdles.
Oliver Sherwood’s charge has barely come off the bridle in any of his races to date and looks very special indeed. The decision to target this race over the Supreme (reportedly) when he’s done most of his winning at the minimum trip suggests that connections think that the step up to two and a half miles will only bring about further improvement in the horse, and if that is the case then he could be very hard to beat even up against some good horses.
If you want to pick holes in him then he hasn’t beaten anything of note really thus far and like most of this season’s novices he’s been running on soft ground or worse. He looks to have a hell of an engine though and you’d have to think the way he travels that he’ll improve for better ground.
With The New One known to clatter a hurdle or two and given the momentum that can take from a horse, in a race as competitive as this, at almost twice the price and now looking most likely to run in the Neptune I’d much rather be backing the horse that looks to be part puffin, part machine.
This year’s Challow Hurdle, a prominent trial for this race, didn’t look a great renewal to me. It’s a game of opinions of course and it was impossible not to be taken with Taquin Du Seuil’s run but what he actually beat there is questionable, at least in my eyes.
Easter Day is obviously a good yardstick and the Jonjo O’Neill horse beat him well but I’d personally need to see a bit more from Taquin Du Seuil before I considered him a contender here, as I suspect that although he will surely improve for better ground that a few of the others will too and look to have more speed.
By that token if I’m ruling out Taquin Du Seuil that also rules out his vanquished opponents in the Challow – the aforementioned Easter Day and Clondaw Kaempfer, the latter smacked of a false favourite prior to the race and really disappointed pulling up having never got competitive.
There are several others still prominent in the betting that just simply don’t look likely to run here now – Willie Mullins’ impressive Naas winner Un Atout looks likely to be Supreme bound now after that bloodless win at the weekend while Coneygree, in spite of being a possible runner in the Neptune trial at Cheltenham at the weekend (if it’s on), looks more likely to contest the Albert Bartlett, or at least that’s what I’m hoping having already backed him for that race.
If Coneygree was to run in the Neptune he’d be a serious contender but I don’t think he will and thus I will cover him more extensively in my Albert Bartlett preview when the time comes.
It also looks unlikely to me that another Willie Mullins horse Champagne Fever will run here having capitulated so badly when beaten at long odds on by Rule The World last time out.
He was found to be wrong after that, as we all suspected, but he looks a ready made chaser and I can’t imagine a master like Mullins would risk him for the sake of it unless he was right back to his best at home.
Champagne Fever’s conqueror that day Rule The World turned in arguably one of the performances of the season to land the Slaney, but if you wanted to pick holes in the form the race did kind of fall in to his lap that day and he needs to show he can do it again. His form is also all on dodgy ground and although that sometimes works in the Irish horses’ favour, having run on bad ground all year then coming over and running on good ground, you can never confidently predict which will draw further improvement from quicker ground.
So although I like Rule The World, as it stands I wouldn’t be backing him. The same can be said of his fellow Gigginstown horse Don Cossack, who amid a sea of hype I did back for any race at the festival. However having fallen when well beaten by Pont Alexandre last time out his price drifted and that looks to be one of my worse ante-post bets thus far.
Prior to that he’d looked a potential superstar and I still think if he runs he’s a player but trainer Gordon Elliot has sounded the alarm that he may bypass Cheltenham altogether now so until some more positive bulletins are heard I’d be holding on to my money for Don Cossack.
Another horse I really like and I’ll be backing wherever he runs is Gevrey Chambertin, who is finally starting to shed the tag ‘Grands Crus’’ brother having notched up an impressive three-timer over hurdles this season.
The David Pipe-trained grey seems to go on any ground and looks to be able to handle any trip but I have my suspicions that he may be aimed at a handicap instead, if they can get his rating spot on for festival week, and the race named in David Pipe’s father’s honour that follows the Gold Cup and the Foxhunters on the Friday could be the sneaky route this young star takes this year.
Of the remainder Court Minstrel has strong form but was well beaten in the Tolworth and will need to regain his better form from Cheltenham earlier in the season to land a blow. If he’s ridden a bit more prominently he looks the sort to have further improvement in him but he needs to leave behind a disappointing run last time.
Melodic Rendezvous, the horse that beat Court Minstrel in the Tolworth, has a chance on that form but I’m not entirely convinced on how good of a renewal of that race that was.
Nicky Henderson’s Chatterbox could be anything, he upset the very talented My Tent Or Yours on heavy ground but is somewhat of an unknown and his festival target, if any, is also a bit of an unknown at present.
So having cast an eye over the potential participants in this year’s Neptune and throwing in further potential Irish raiders in the useful Minsk and the talented Moscow Mannon it is clear the race has the potential to be one for the ages with several future superstars set to lock horns.
Taking everything we know in to consideration though there is one horse that stands out and that is the unbeaten and possibly unstoppable Puffin Billy.
Neptune Investment Management Novices’ Hurdle 2013 – Selected Best Odds:
The New One 5/1
Pont Alexandre 7/1
Puffin Billy 9/1
Taquin Du Seuil 10/1
Rule The World 12/1
Champagne Fever 14/1
Don Cossack 16/1
Un Atout 16/1
Chatterbox 20/1
Clondaw Kaempfer 20/1
Coneygree 20/1
Gevrey Chambertin 20/1
Melodic Rendezvous 20/1
Court Minstrel 25/1
Easter Day 25/1
Minsk 25/1
Moscow Mannon 25/1
Recommendation:
Back Puffin Billy to win @ 9/1 (Sportingbet, William Hill) [8/1 NRFB Bet Victor]
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